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Inspecting the cyclical properties of the Italian Manufacturing Business survey data


  • Tatiana Cesaroni

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)


The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the cyclical features of the main Italian Manufacturing Business Survey indicators using time and frequency domain techniques. In particular, it analyzes the dynamics of each survey variable over time and with respect to different benchmark business cycles. The findings show that important changes have occurred in the periodicity and volatility of Manufacturing Survey data over the years. As expected, the contemporary cross-correlation of each Survey indicator is higher with respect to the industrial production than it is to the GDP cyclical component. Evidence of significant differences in the co-movements between each indicator with respect to GDP and industrial production is found. The cross-spectral analysis seems to reveal the existence of a common periodicity of all cyclical indicators with both the manufacturing and the whole-economy business cycle. This last result confirms the strength of Business Survey data used as short-run policy indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatiana Cesaroni, 2007. "Inspecting the cyclical properties of the Italian Manufacturing Business survey data," ISAE Working Papers 83, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  • Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:83

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Giancarlo Bruno, 2001. "Seasonal Adjustment of Italian Industrial Production Index using Tramo-Seats," ISAE Working Papers 18, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    2. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
    3. Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giorgio Bodo, 2000. "Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 541-561.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
    2. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2010. "Estimating potential output using business survey data in a svar framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2249-2258.

    More about this item


    Business cycle; Cross-correlations; Spectral analysis; Manufacturing Business survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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