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Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data

  • James Mitchell

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

  • Richard J. Smith

    (University of Bristol and National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

  • Martin R. Weale

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

Survey data are widely used to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. This paper proposes an indicator based on a theoretically consistent procedure for quantifying firm-level survey responses that are ordered and categorical. Firms" survey responses are assumed to be triggered by a latent continuous random variable as it crosses thresholds. Breaking tradition these thresholds are not assumed time invariant. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator of manufacturing output growth outperforms traditional indicators that assume time-invariant thresholds. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 112 (2002)
Issue (Month): 478 (March)
Pages: C117-C135

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:112:y:2002:i:478:p:c117-c135
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  1. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  2. Chambers, Ray & Weale, Martin & Youll, Robin, 2000. "The Average Earnings Index," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F100-121, February.
  3. Pesaran, M.H., 1992. "A Generalised R2 Criterion for Regression Models Estimated by the Instrumental Variable Method," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9220, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-85, April-Jun.
  5. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-79, September.
  6. Smith, Richard J, 1989. "On the Use of Distributional Mis-specification Checks in Limited Dependent Variable Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 178-92, Supplemen.
  7. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  8. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
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