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Qualitative business surveys: signal or noise?

  • Silvia Lui
  • James Mitchell
  • Martin Weale

This papers identifies the information content at the firm-level of qualitative business survey data by first examining the consistency between these data and the quantitative data provided by the same respondents to the UK's ONS in official surveys. Since the qualitative data are published ahead of the quantitative data the paper then assesses the ability of the qualitative data to predict (or nowcast) the firm-level quantitative data.

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Article provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society).

Volume (Year): 174 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 327-348

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:174:y:2011:i:2:p:327-348
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  1. Ulf Olsson & Fritz Drasgow & Neil Dorans, 1982. "The polyserial correlation coefficient," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 337-347, September.
  2. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005. "Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm-Level Survey Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 479-499, 07.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," IEPR Working Papers 05.30, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  5. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-91, January.
  6. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, Junio.
  7. Verbeek, Marno & Nijman, Theo, 1992. "Testing for Selectivity Bias in Panel Data Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 681-703, August.
  8. Smith, Richard J & Blundell, Richard W, 1986. "An Exogeneity Test for a Simultaneous Equation Tobit Model with an Application to Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 679-85, May.
  9. Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Forecasting manufacturing output growth using firm-level survey data," NIESR Discussion Papers 251, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  10. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  11. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
  12. Machin, Stephen J & Stewart, Mark B, 1990. "Unions and the Financial Performance of British Private Sector Establishments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 327-50, Oct.-Dec..
  13. Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1992. "Testing for selectivity in panel data models," Other publications TiSEM 7ec34a6c-1d84-4052-971c-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  14. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2002. "Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C117-C135, March.
  15. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-64, May.
  16. Ciaran Driver & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 71-89, 02.
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