Quantifying survey expectations: What's wrong with the probability approach?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013. "Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
References listed on IDEAS
- Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
- Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011.
"The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
- Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 343, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006.
"Survey Expectations,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting,
Elsevier.
- Dr Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 260, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 1599, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," IEPR Working Papers 05.30, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Breitung Jörg, 2008. "Assessing the Rationality of Survey Expectations: The Probability Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(5-6), pages 630-643, October.
- Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
- Silvia Lui & James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2011.
"Qualitative business surveys: signal or noise?,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A,
Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(2), pages 327-348, April.
- Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2008. "Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 323, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004.
"Disagreement about Inflation Expectations,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Augusto Marc Rocha Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm391, Yale School of Management.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
- Loffler, Gunter, 1999. "Refining the Carlson-Parkin method," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 167-171, August.
- Doepke Joerg & Dovern Jonas & Fritsche Ulrich & Slacalek Jiri, 2008.
"The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, March.
- Jörg Döpke & Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 571, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Jonas Dovern & Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200603, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009.
"Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky & Michael Schröder, 2008. "Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence on the Chartist-Fundamentalist Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2502, CESifo Group Munich.
- Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
- Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2005. "An Alternative to the Carlson-Parkin Method for the Quantification of Qualitative Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," ifo Working Paper Series 9, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Mitchell, James & Mouratidis, Kostas & Weale, Martin, 2007.
"Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: Evidence from qualitative survey data,"
Economics Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 245-252, February.
- Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: evidence from qualitative survey data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 266, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Anderson, Evan W. & Ghysels, Eric & Juergens, Jennifer L., 2009. "The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 233-263, November.
- James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2002.
"Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data,"
Economic Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 117-135, March.
- Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2001. "Quantification of qualitative firm-level survey data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 181, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Defris, L. V. & Williams, R. A., 1979. "Quantitative versus qualitative measures of price expectations: The evidence from Australian consumer surveys," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-173.
- Müller, Christian, 2010. "You CAN Carlson-Parkin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 33-35, July.
- Pesaran, M Hashem, 1985. "Formation of Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 948-975, December.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics,
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Maag, 2009. "On the accuracy of the probability method for quantifying beliefs about inflation," KOF Working papers 09-230, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005.
"Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm-Level Survey Data,"
Manchester School,
University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 479-499, July.
- Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Forecasting manufacturing output growth using firm-level survey data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 251, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data : A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
- Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-331, August.
- Nolte, Ingmar & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2007. "Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 15-28.
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 803-820, October.
- Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-138, May.
- Batchelor, R. A., 1982. "Expectations, output and inflation : The European experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25.
- Mitchell, James, 2002. "The use of non-normal distributions in quantifying qualitative survey data on expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 101-107, June.
- Fishe, Raymond P. H. & Lahiri, Kajal, 1981. "On the estimation of inflationary expectations from qualitative responses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 89-102, May.
- Batchelor, R A, 1986. "Quantitative v. Qualitative Measures of Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(2), pages 99-120, May.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-62.
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018.
"“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”,"
AQR Working Papers
201801, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2018.
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," IREA Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2018.
- repec:spr:soinre:v:135:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1490-3 is not listed on IDEAS
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017.
"Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming,"
IREA Working Papers
201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "“Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming”," AQR Working Papers 201706, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2017.
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015.
"“Self-organizing map analysis of agents' expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”,"
IREA Working Papers
201511, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2015.
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents’ expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," AQR Working Papers 201508, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Mar 2015.
- Hutson, Mark & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, Herman, 2014. "Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 6-11.
- repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0416-0 is not listed on IDEAS
- Christian Seiler, 2015. "On the robustness of balance statistics with respect to nonresponse," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(2), pages 45-62.
- Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
More about this item
Keywords
Quantification; Stock Market Expectations; Probability Approach; Heterogeneity;JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ALL-2011-12-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2011-12-13 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-12-13 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Heidrich, Christian). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/fwhande.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.