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The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Jonas Dovern

    (Kiel Institute for World Economics (IfW Kiel))

  • Joerg Doepke

    (Fachhochschule Merseburg)

  • Ulrich Fritsche

    (Department for Economics and Politics, University of Hamburg, and DIW Berlin)

  • Jirka Slacalek

    (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin))

Abstract

We investigate the relevance of the Carroll’s sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information model which differ in the stationarity assumptions about the underlying series. Our baseline stationary estimation suggests that the average frequency of information updating for the European households is roughly once in 18 months. The vector error-correction model implies households update information about once a year.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas Dovern & Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200603, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:200603
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_3_2006.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    2. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
    3. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    5. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 164-169, May.
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    10. Hashmat Khan & Zhenhua Zhu, 2002. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom," Staff Working Papers 02-19, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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