IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbi/wpaper/4-rt-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?

Author

Listed:
  • O'Reilly,Gerard

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • Whelan, Karl

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for Euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behaviour of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas critique, our principal finding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the Euro-area inflation process. Full-sample estimates of the persistence parameter are generally close to one, and we fail to reject the hypothesis that this parameter has been stable over time. We discuss how these results provide some indirect evidence against rational expectations models with strong forward-looking elements, such as the New-Keynesian Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Reilly,Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2004. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/research-technical-papers/4rt04---has-euro-area-inflation-persistence-changed-over-time-(o'reilly-and-whelan).pdf?sfvrsn=4
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Chen, Celia, 1996. "Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint A size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 221-241, January.
    2. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
    6. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    9. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-725, August.
    10. Jeremy B. Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "Does the labor share of income drive inflation?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    12. Robalo Marques, Carlos, 2004. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Working Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    14. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    15. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
    16. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    17. Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1998. "Testing for a Shift in Mean without Having to Estimate Serial-Correlation Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 73-80, January.
    18. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
    19. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    20. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II US Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    22. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.
    23. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    24. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    25. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    26. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-984, November.
    27. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2005. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    28. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
    2. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
    3. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    4. O'Reilly, Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Testing Parameter Stability: A Wild Bootstrap Approach," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    6. Zhang, Chengsi, 2011. "Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 622-629, January.
    7. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194, January.
    8. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    9. Zhang, Chengsi & Clovis, Joel, 2010. "China inflation dynamics: Persistence and policy regimes," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 373-388, May.
    10. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, 2010. "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
    11. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Arguments contre la zone franc [Against the cfa franc zone]," MPRA Paper 33710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Simone Elmer & Thomas Maag, 2009. "The Persistence of Inflation in Switzerland," KOF Working papers 09-235, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    13. Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Working papers 122, Banque de France.
    14. Chengsi Zhang, 2008. "Structural instability of US inflation persistence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1147-1151.
    15. Conrad, Christian & Eife, Thomas A., 2012. "Explaining inflation-gap persistence by a time-varying Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 419-428.
    16. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    17. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
    18. Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587.
    19. Luca Fanelli, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Through Vector Autoregressive Models: Results from the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 53-66, February.
    20. Kiyotaka Nakashima, 2008. "Ideal And Real Japanese Monetary Policy: A Comparative Analysis Of Actual And Optimal Policy Measures," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 345-369, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fiona Farrelly (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbigvie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.