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Does the labour share of income drive inflation?

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  • Jeremy Rudd
  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

Woodford (2001) has presented evidence that the new-Keynesian Phillips curve fits the empirical behavior of inflation well when the labor income share is used as a driving variable, but fits poorly when deterministically detrended output is used. He concludes that the output gap - the deviation between actual and potential output - is better captured by the labor income share, in turn implying that central banks should raise interest rates in response to increases in the labor share. We show that the empirical evidence generally suggests that the labor share version of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve is a very poor model of price inflation. We conclude that there is little reason to view the labor income share as a good measure of the output gap, or as an appropriate variable for incorporation in a monetary policy rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "Does the labour share of income drive inflation?," Open Access publications 10197/233, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/233
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/233
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    Cited by:

    1. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 40/2008.
    2. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March.
    3. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    4. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
    5. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne A., 2016. "Unit Total Costs: An Alternative Marginal Cost Proxy for Inflation Dynamics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(7), pages 1826-1849.
    6. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2005_032.
    7. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 463-473, December.
    8. William Baeza L. & Pablo García., 2003. "Medidas Alternativas de Brechas en Modelos de Inflación," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(2), pages 77-94, August.
    9. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2008_040, December.
    10. Erika Gulyas & Richard Startz, 2005. "The Tradeoff between Inflation and the Real Economy: Forward-Looking Behavior and the Inflation Premium," Working Papers UWEC-2005-25, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    11. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Nuno Alves, 2004. "A Flexible View on Prices," Working Papers w200406, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Holmberg, Karolina, 2006. "Derivation and Estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 197, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    14. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    15. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    16. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.

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