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Should monetary policy target labor's share of income?

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Abstract

In recent work, Woodford (2001) presents evidence that using real unit labor costs (labor's share of income) as a driving variable in the new-Keynesian Phillips curve yields a superior fit for inflation relative to a model that uses deterministically detrended real GDP. This evidence leads him to conclude that the output gap the deviation between actual and potential output is better captured by the labor income share, in turn implying that the monetary authority should raise interest rates in response to increases in this variable. We document that the empirical case for the superiority of the labor's share version of the new-Keynesian model is actually quite weak, and conclude that there is little reason to view the labor income share as an appropriate target for monetary policy.

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  • Jeremy B. Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "Should monetary policy target labor's share of income?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2002:i:mar:x:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maritta Paloviita, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 847-860, November.
    2. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
    3. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    4. Paloviita, Maritta, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations : further results," Research Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland.
    5. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    6. Maritta Paloviita, 2009. "Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 233-254.
    7. Lars Sondergaard, 2003. "Using Instrumental Varibles to Estimate the Share of Backward- Looking Firms," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-24, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    8. Günter Coenen & Volker W. Wieland, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area, and Japan," International Finance Discussion Papers 745, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Maritta Paloviita, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Macroeconomics 0405015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Maritta Paloviita, 2009. "Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 233-254.

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