IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0405015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Maritta Paloviita

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This paper assesses empirically the two main alternative specifications of the output gap-based Phillips relation for the euro area: the older expectations-augmented Phillips curve and the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The main focus is on the role of expectations and comparison of the two theories. Instead of imposing rational expectations, an alternative and in principle less restrictive approach is applied to operationalising expectations. Direct measures of inflation expectations, ie OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies of economic agents’ inflation expectations. The main interest is in the euro area as a whole, although potential heterogeneity of inflation dynamics is also examined across eleven EMU countries. According to the results, inflation expectations are central to the inflation process in all euro area countries. The paper finds evidence that the new Keynesian Phillips curve fits the euro area data slightly better than the expectations-augmented Phillips curve. Research on expectations formation would be an important complement to the present study.

Suggested Citation

  • Maritta Paloviita, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Macroeconomics 0405015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0405015
    Note: Type of Document - pdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0405/0405015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeremy B. Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "Should monetary policy target labor's share of income?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
    4. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    5. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April.
    6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    7. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    8. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 51-77.
    9. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    10. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    11. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    12. Edith Gagnon & Hashmat Khan, 2001. "New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures forCanada, the United States, and the Euro Area," Staff Working Papers 01-25, Bank of Canada.
    13. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
    15. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    2. Maritta Paloviita, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 847-860, November.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2002_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Paloviita, Maritta, 2002. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2002, Bank of Finland.
    7. repec:zbw:bofism:2005_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Herve, 2005. "Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-550, May.
    9. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2005_032.
    10. repec:zbw:bofism:2008_040 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Carla Massidda, 2005. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Italian Manufacturing Sectors," Working Papers 2005.12, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 40/2008.
    13. Janko Gorter, 2005. "Subjective Expectations and New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Europe," DNB Working Papers 049, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    14. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    15. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2009. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 375-398, June.
    16. Jan Marc Berk & Job Swank, 2007. "Regional real exchange rates and Phillips curves in monetary unions - Evidence from the US and EMU," DNB Working Papers 147, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
    18. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2005. "A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-32, March.
    19. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2003. "Evaluating the Calvo model of sticky prices," Working Paper Series WP-03-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    20. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    21. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    22. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 463-473, December.
    23. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
    24. Arslan, M. Murat, 2008. "Dynamics of sticky information and sticky price models in a New Keynesian DSGE framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1276-1294, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; expectations; euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0405015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.