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Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations

  • Maritta Paloviita

    (Bank of Finland)

Registered author(s):

    This paper assesses empirically the two main alternative specifications of the output gap-based Phillips relation for the euro area: the older expectations-augmented Phillips curve and the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The main focus is on the role of expectations and comparison of the two theories. Instead of imposing rational expectations, an alternative and in principle less restrictive approach is applied to operationalising expectations. Direct measures of inflation expectations, ie OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies of economic agents’ inflation expectations. The main interest is in the euro area as a whole, although potential heterogeneity of inflation dynamics is also examined across eleven EMU countries. According to the results, inflation expectations are central to the inflation process in all euro area countries. The paper finds evidence that the new Keynesian Phillips curve fits the euro area data slightly better than the expectations-augmented Phillips curve. Research on expectations formation would be an important complement to the present study.

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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0405/0405015.pdf
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    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0405015.

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    Date of creation: 14 May 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0405015
    Note: Type of Document - pdf
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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    1. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 51-77.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    3. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    5. Edith Gagnon & Hashmat Khan, 2001. "New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures forCanada, the United States, and the Euro Area," Working Papers 01-25, Bank of Canada.
    6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    7. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "Should monetary policy target labor's share of income?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    8. Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    9. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April.
    10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    11. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October.
    13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    14. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February.
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