Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data
This paper uses the European Commissionâ€™s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumersâ€™ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECBâ€™s anchor for price stability. The convergence in inflation expectations does not appear to be faster than the convergence in actual inflation rates. Regarding inflation uncertainty, the data indicate a relationship with country size, suggesting that within EMU, inflation uncertainty may increase in countries that have a smaller influence on ECB policy.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003.
"Inflation forecast uncertainty,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Nov 2001.
- Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
- Enrique Alberola & JosÈ Manuel MaquÈs, "undated". "On the revelance and nature of regional inflation differentials: The case of Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy 35, FEDEA.
- Enrique Alberola & José M. Marqués, 1999. "On the Relevance and Nature of Regional Inflation Differentials: the Case of Spain," Working Papers 9913, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 13-41.
- Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394, October.
- Philip R. Lane & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," Trinity Economics Papers 20034, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Philip R. Lane, & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp05, IIIS.
- Berk, J.M & Swank, J., 2002. "Regional price adjustment in a monetary union: the case of EMU," Serie Research Memoranda 0016, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy In Europe," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 122-132, April.
- Jan Marc Berk, 2000. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Europe," MEB Series (discontinued) 2000-6, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
- J.M. Berk, 2000. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Europe," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 55, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2002. "Price Index Convergence Among United States Cities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1081-1099, November.
- Jan Marc Berk & Job Swank, 2002. "Regional Price Adjustment in a Monetary Union the Case of EMU," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-7, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
- Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
- Jan Marc Berk & Gerbert Hebbink, 2006. "The anchoring of European inflation expectations," DNB Working Papers 116, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Maritta Paloviita, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 847-860, November.
- Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
- Laurence Ball, 1990. "Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?," NBER Working Papers 3224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- I. Arnold & C.J.M. Kool, 2004. "The Role of Inflation Differentials in Regional Adjustment: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 04-13, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Eva Ortega, 2003. "Persistent inflation differentials in Europe," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España;Economic Bulletin Homepage, issue JAN, January.
- Eva Ortega, 2003. "Persistent inflation differentials in Europe," Working Papers 0305, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
- Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2004. "Euro area inflation differentials," Working Paper Series 388, European Central Bank.
- Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Reckwerth, Jürgen, 1997. "Inflation and output in Germany: The role of inflation expectations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1997,05e, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- John H. Rogers, 2001. "Price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 699, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-331, August.
- Paloviita, Maritta, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations : further results," Research Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland.
- Gadzinski, Gregory & Orlandi, Fabrice, 2004. "Inflation persistence in the European Union, the euro area, and the United States," Working Paper Series 414, European Central Bank.
- Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-138, May.
- Servaas Deroose & Sven Langedijk & Werner Roeger, 2004. "Reviewing adjustment dynamics in EMU: from overheating to overcooling," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 198, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
- Hofmann, Boris & Remsperger, Hermann, 2005. "Inflation differentials among the Euro area countries: Potential causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-419, June.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)