Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis
The aim of this paper is to analyse the dynamics relationships between inflation, output growth, and real and nominal uncertainty using the VARFIMA-BEKK MGARCH model of inflation and output growth and quarterly data for the UK covering the 1957:Q2-2006:Q4 period. The analysis is also done for the three sub-periods determined by considering the structural changes such as the Great Moderation in the series of the UK. Two findings are obtained. First, the evidence obtained from the full period supports a number of important conclusions, one of which is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty, another one being strong evidence regarding the positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Taking this into account, it is possible to put forward that an essential determinant of economic growth is uncertainty about the inflation rate. The last finding for this period is that output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the inflation and output growth rate. Second, the evidence found from the sub-periods is that there are no linkages between inflation, output growth and their volatility. Copyright � 2010 The Author. The Manchester School � 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 78 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1463-6786
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1463-6786|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:78:y:2010:i:6:p:511-537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.