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Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Are they related?

  • Don Bredin

    (University of Dublin)

  • Stilianos Fountas

    (University of Macedonia)

We use a very general bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean model and G7 monthly data covering the 1957-2003 period to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in most countries output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the output growth rate. Second, there is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Hence, contrary to popular belief, uncertainty about the inflation rate is not necessarily detrimental to economic growth but in some cases it may also enhance growth. Finally, there is mixed evidence on the effect of output uncertainty on inflation. In sum, our results indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester, 2005.

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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 with number 51.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:51
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