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Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Inflation and Growth: Regime-Dependent Effects in the G7

  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis
  • Christos S. Savva

We analyze the causal effects of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth and examine whether these effects vary with the level of inflation and location on the business cycle. Employing a bivariate Smooth Transition VAR GARCH-M model for the G7 countries during the period 1957- 2009, we find strong nonlinearities in these effects. First, uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related with a higher average growth rate mostly in the low-growth regime, supporting the theory of “creative destruction”. Second, higher inflation uncertainty induces lower growth rates, increasingly so at the high-inflation regime. Third, real and nominal uncertainties have mixed effects on average inflation. Nevertheless, there is a trend in favour of the Cukierman- Meltzer hypothesis in the high-inflation regime. Our results can be viewed as offering an explanation for the often mixed and ambiguous findings in the literature.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr145.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 145.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:145
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/

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  1. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
  2. Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
  3. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
  4. John W. Dawson & Joseph P. Dejuan & John J. Seater & E. Frank Stephenson, 2001. "Economic information versus quality variation in cross-country data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(4), pages 988-1009, November.
  5. Partha Chatterjee & Malik Shukayev, 2006. "Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related?," Working Papers 06-24, Bank of Canada.
  6. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September.
  7. Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 1997. "Asymmetries and non-linearities in economic activity," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 203-206.
  8. Joseph Dejuan & Simon Gurr, 2004. "On the link between volatility and growth: evidence from Canadian Provinces," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 279-282.
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