IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jespps/v38y2011i4p414-429.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of inflation uncertainty, output uncertainty and oil price on inflation and growth in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Girijasankar Mallik
  • Anis Chowdhury

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia. Design/methodology/approach - Multivariate EGARCH models has been used to estimate the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia. Findings - Using quarterly data in multivariate EGARCH models, this study finds that both inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty have negative and significant effects on output growth. The paper also finds that, while inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on inflation, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation. The study uses a newly constructed oil price dummy as a control variable and finds that oil price changes significantly increase inflation uncertainty. The study also finds that inflation uncertainty and the inflation level have both declined since the adoption of a formal inflation‐targeting monetary policy in Australia. Research limitations/implications - Multivariate EGARCH model can be used to estimate the effects of inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for cross‐country analysis. Originality/value - This is the first study of the effect of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and growth in Australia using a newly constructed oil price dummy in a multivariate EGARCH framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Girijasankar Mallik & Anis Chowdhury, 2011. "Effect of inflation uncertainty, output uncertainty and oil price on inflation and growth in Australia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 414-429, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:38:y:2011:i:4:p:414-429
    DOI: 10.1108/01443581111160879
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/01443581111160879/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/01443581111160879/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/01443581111160879?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    2. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
    3. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    4. Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
    5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    6. Satya Paul & Colm Kearney & Kabir Chowdhury, 1997. "Inflation and economic growth: a multi-country empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1387-1401.
    7. Easterly, William, 2005. "National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1015-1059, Elsevier.
    8. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-277, March.
    9. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    10. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
    12. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    13. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    14. Clark, Todd E, 1997. "Cross-country Evidence on Long-Run Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 70-81, January.
    15. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-837, August.
    16. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, June.
    17. Girijasankar Mallik & Anis Chowdhury, 2002. "Inflation, government expenditure and real income in the long-run," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 240-250, September.
    18. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "Moderate Inflation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44, January.
    19. George B. Tawadros, 2009. "Testing the impact of inflation targeting on inflation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 326-342, September.
    20. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    21. James E. Payne, 2008. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from the Caribbean region," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(6), pages 501-511, October.
    22. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Inflation and growth," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(May), pages 153-169.
    23. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    24. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    25. Nicholas Kaldor, 1955. "Alternative Theories of Distribution," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 83-100.
    26. Devereux, Michael, 1989. "A Positive Theory of Inflation and Inflation Variance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 105-116, January.
    27. Rattan J. Bhatia, 1960. "Inflation, Deflation, and Economic Development," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 101-114, November.
    28. Stanners, W, 1993. "Is Low Inflation an Important Condition for High Growth?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 79-107, March.
    29. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    30. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    31. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
    32. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    33. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
    34. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    35. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-475, June.
    36. Guy Debelle & Jenny Wilkinson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and the Inflation Process: Some Lessons from an Open Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    37. A. R. Pagan & A. D. Hall & P. K. Trivedi, 1983. "Assessing the Variability of Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 585-596.
    38. anonymous, 1997. "New $50 bill introduced," Financial Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 10(Oct), pages 1-4.
    39. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    40. Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
    41. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    42. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara J, 1993. "What We Have Learned about Policy and Growth from Cross-Country Regressions?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 426-430, May.
    43. Ardeshir Sepehri & Saeed Moshiri, 2004. "Inflation-Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 191-207.
    44. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
    45. U. Tun Wai, 1959. "The Relation between Inflation and Economic Development: A Statistical Inductive Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(2), pages 302-317, October.
    46. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    47. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    48. Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 796-796.
    49. Philip Lowe, 1997. "Introduction to Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    50. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 2002/197, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Anonymous, 1997. "The Forecasting and Policy System: an introduction," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 60, September.
    52. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
    53. Chowdhury, Anis & Mallik, Girijasankar, 1998. "A Land Locked into Low Inflation--How Far Is the Promised Land?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 233-243, September.
    54. Craine, Roger, 1989. "Risky business : The allocation of capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 201-218, March.
    55. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    56. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    57. Arthur M. Okun, 1971. "The Mirage of Steady Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 2(2), pages 485-498.
    58. Wilson, Bradley Kemp, 2006. "The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: New time series evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 609-620, September.
    59. Sajjadur Rahman & Apostolos Serletis, 2009. "The effects of inflation uncertainty: some international evidence," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(5), pages 541-550, September.
    60. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Tan Lee Pei & Hafizah Abdul Rahim, 2013. "Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Sectors in Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 360-366.
    2. Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Keli & Gong, Xu, 2021. "The effects of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Lorna Katusiime, 2018. "Private Sector Credit and Inflation Volatility," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, April.
    4. Nagmi M. Moftah Aimer, 2016. "The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on the Economic Sectors of Libya," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 6(12), pages 13-24, December.
    5. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2012. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A MRS-IV Approach," Working Papers 2012025, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    6. Nagmi M. Moftah Aimer, 2016. "The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on the Economic Sectors of Libya," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 6(12), pages 13-24, December.
    7. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.
    8. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    9. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2022. "Is Inflation Uncertainty a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? The Inflation-Inflation Uncertainty Nexus and Inflation Targeting in South Africa," Working Papers 202254, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Regime Dependent Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Real Growth: A Markov Switching Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 135-155, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
    2. Shah, Said Zamin & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Hook, Law Siong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2017. "Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-93.
    3. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    4. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
    5. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Kaustav Kanti Sarkar & Srikanta Kundu, 2021. "Nonlinear relationships between inflation, output growth and uncertainty in India: New evidence from a bivariate threshold model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 469-493, July.
    6. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.
    8. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    9. Wilson, Bradley Kemp, 2006. "The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: New time series evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 609-620, September.
    10. Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2019. "Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Transmissions between Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance: Evidence from South Asian Countries," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(3), pages 281-313, December.
    11. Anis Chowdhury & Jomo Kwame Sundaram, 2023. "Inflation and Development: Central Bank Stabilization Policies Revisited," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 66(1), pages 3-14, June.
    12. Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
    13. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    14. Mandeya Shelton M.T & Ho Sin-Yu, 2022. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and the Economic Growth Nexus: A Review of the Literature," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 172-190, June.
    15. Noha Emara, 2012. "Inflation Volatility, Institutions, and Economic Growth," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(1), pages 29-53, January.
    16. Apostolos Serletis & Jinan Liu, 2022. "Inflation and economic activity in advanced and emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4196-4223, October.
    17. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2013. "Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G-7 Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 1-42, February.
    18. Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2013. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty And Output Growth: Recent Evidence From Asean-5 Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(04), pages 1-17.
    19. B. Balaji & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2018. "Spillover Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainties in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 143-162, December.
    20. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2021. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Markov Regime Switching Heteroskedasticity: Evidence from European Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(2), pages 181-200.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:38:y:2011:i:4:p:414-429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.