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Inflation-Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries


  • Ardeshir Sepehri
  • Saeed Moshiri


There is growing evidence from multi-country studies indicating that there is a turning point in the relationship between inflation and economic growth beyond which the detrimental effects of high inflation offset the stimulating effects of mild inflation on growth. However, it is not clear whether it is appropriate to assume an identical turning point in the inflation and growth relation across countries at various stages of development. Using a non-linear specification and the data from four groups of countries at various stages of development, this paper examines the possibility for a family rather than a single inverted U relation across countries at various stages of development. The estimated turning points are found to vary widely from as high as 15% per year for the lower-middle-income countries to 11% for the low-income countries, and 5% for the upper-middle-income countries. No statistically detectable, long-run relationship between inflation and growth is evident for the OECD countries. The results indicate the potential bias in the estimation of inflation-growth nexus that may result from combining various countries at different levels of development. The existence of such a degree of heterogeneity across countries at various stages of development also suggests the inappropriateness of setting a single, uniform numerical policy target applicable to all (developing) countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ardeshir Sepehri & Saeed Moshiri, 2004. "Inflation-Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 191-207.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:18:y:2004:i:2:p:191-207
    DOI: 10.1080/0269217042000186679

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manamba EPAPHRA, 2016. "Nonlinearities in Inflation and Growth Nexus: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 471-512, September.
    2. Girijasankar Mallik & Anis Chowdhury, 2011. "Effect of inflation uncertainty, output uncertainty and oil price on inflation and growth in Australia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 414-429, September.
    3. Schiffbauer, Marc, 2006. "Theoretical and methodological study on the role of public policies in fostering innovation and growth," Papers DYNREG04, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Qaiser Munir & Kasim Mansur, 2009. "Non-Linearity between Inflation Rate and GDP Growth in Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1555-1569.
    5. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Sedigheh Gholizadeh Kenari, 2015. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: New Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(2), pages 51-56, Fabruary.
    6. Reneé van Eyden & Tolga Omay & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Inflation-Growth Nexus in Africa: Evidence from a Pooled CCE Multiple Regime Panel Smooth Transition Model," Working Papers 201504, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Ortiz, Isabel, & Cummins, Matthew. & Karunanethy, Kalaivani., 2015. "Fiscal space for social protection options to expand social investments in 187 countries," ILO Working Papers 994877663402676, International Labour Organization.
    8. Jaganath Behera & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2016. "Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in BRICS: Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, March.
    9. Isabel Ortiz & Jingqing Chai & Matthew Cummins, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Space:Options for Social and Economic Development for Children and Poor Households in 184 Countries," Working papers 1108, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
    10. Seleteng, Monaheng & Bittencourt, Manoel & van Eyden, Reneé, 2013. "Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 149-156.
    11. John Serieux, 2007. "Managing the Exchange Rate Consequences of an MDG-Related Scale-up in HIV/AIDS Financing," Conference Paper 1, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
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    13. Waseem Khadim & Saddam Ilyas & Bilal Mehmood, 2016. "Of Inflation and Growth Nexus in BRIMC Economies," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 32-45, January.
    14. Polterovich, Victor, 2006. "Снижение Инфляции Не Должно Быть Главной Целью Экономической Политики Правительства России
      [Decreasing Inflation Should not Be the Main Task of the Russian Government Economic Policy]
      ," MPRA Paper 22064, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Inflation; growth; non-linearity; developed and developing countries;


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