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Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Is Africa Different?

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  • Arcade Ndoricimpa

Abstract

This study examines nonlinearities in the inflation-growth nexus in Africa. The study employs a novel dynamic panel threshold regression method developed by Kremer et al. [(2013). Inflation and growth: New evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis. Empirical Economics, 44, 861–878. doi:10.1007/s00181-012-0553-9] that extends Hansen’s [(1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345–368. doi:10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00025-1] non-dynamic panel threshold model as well as Caner and Hansen [(2004). Instrumental variable estimation of a threshold model. Econometric Theory, 20, 813–843. doi:10.1017/S0266466604205011] cross-sectional threshold model to deal with potential endogeneity problems. The findings of this study confirm a non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth in Africa. More specifically, the results show that the inflation threshold values are 6.7% for the whole sample, 9% for the sub-sample of low-income countries and 6.5% for middle-income countries. The regression results suggest that relatively lower level of inflation appears to be in favor of higher economic growth only in African middle-income countries. However, inflation rate beyond a certain threshold is more likely to be detrimental to economic growth for all the cases. These results are robust by considering additional control variables and using three-year averages of the data. The findings of this study may be useful to African monetary policymakers as they decide on inflation targets to adopt to avoid the detrimental effects of high inflation while reaping the growth benefits of low inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Is Africa Different?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 599-620, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:31:y:2017:i:4:p:599-620
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2017.1380679
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sanga,Dimitri & Gui-Diby,Steve Loris, 2020. "Inflation Threshold Levels and Economic Growth in the Franc Zone Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9405, The World Bank.
    3. Raynold Runganga, 2020. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Zimbabwe is there Any Inflation Threshold Level?," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10.
    4. Mavikela Nomahlubi & Mhaka Simba & Phiri Andrew, 2019. "The Inflation-Growth Relationship in SSA Inflation-Targeting Countries," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(2), pages 84-102, August.
    5. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2017. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? New Evidence from Non-threshold and Threshold Analysis," MPRA Paper 85784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Endogenous monetary approach to optimal inflation–growth nexus in Swaziland," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 559-571, March.
    7. Muhammad AZAM KHAN* & Saleem KHAN*, 2018. "INFLATION AND THE ECONOMIC GROWTH: Evidence from Five Asian Countries," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 28(2), pages 235-252.
    8. Bente Castro Campos, 2020. "Are there asymmetric relations between real interest rates and agricultural commodity prices? Testing for threshold effects of US real interest rates and adjusted wheat, corn, and soybean prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 371-394, July.

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