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Economic Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Tale of Two Thresholds

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
  • Maria Silgoner

Abstract

This article reassesses the impact of inflation on long-term growth for a panel of 14 European Union countries in the years prior to monetary unification. While previous research mostly focuses on a linear nexus or allows for a piecewise linear relationship with a single threshold, this study takes account of a more complex relationship. The empirical estimates for the full EU sample confirm the hypothesis that the relationship between inflation and growth is positive for very low inflation rates (that is, below an estimate of 1.6 per cent), insignificant thereafter and negative for high, two-digit inflation levels. The estimate of the inflation level that divides the insignificant from the negative effect is found to be higher in the group of traditional cohesion countries than for the rest of the sample.

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Silgoner, 2014. "Economic Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Tale of Two Thresholds," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 843-860, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:52:y:2014:i:4:p:843-860
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jcms.12117
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    3. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Is Africa Different?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 599-620, October.
    4. Muhammad AZAM KHAN* & Saleem KHAN*, 2018. "INFLATION AND THE ECONOMIC GROWTH: Evidence from Five Asian Countries," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 28(2), pages 235-252.
    5. Bibi Rouksar-Dussoyea & Ho Ming-Kang & Raja Rajeswari & Benjamin Chan Yin-Fah, 2017. "Economic Crisis in Europe: Panel Analysis of Inflation, Unemployment and Gross Domestic Product Growth Rates," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(10), pages 145-154, October.
    6. Ndoricimpa Arcade, 2017. "Working Paper 249 - Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression," Working Paper Series 2359, African Development Bank.
    7. Apel, Mikael & Armelius, Hanna & Claussen, Carl Andreas, 2017. "The level of the inflation target – a review of the issues," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue 2, pages 36-56.

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