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The Relationship between Inflation and Growth:A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach for Developed and Developing Countries

  • Danilo Trupkin

    ()

  • Raul Ibarra

This paper studies the existence for a set of countries of an inflation threshold above which its effect on economic growth is negative, considering the speed of transition from one inflation regime to the other. Using a panel data set of above 120 countries for the period after the Second World War, we apply a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model with xed effects. The estimated threshold of the inflation rate for industrialized countries is 4.1%, while for non-industrialized countries the threshold is 19.1%. The speed of transition is relatively smooth in the first group, but for developing economies inflation rapidly has negative effects on growth when it is near the threshold. In addition, we find that the in ation threshold falls to 7.9% by selecting a reduced group of developing countries, according to a measure associated with institutional quality.

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Paper provided by Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo. in its series Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers with number 1107.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:mnt:wpaper:1107
Contact details of provider: Postal: Prudencio de Pena 2440, Montevideo 11600
Web page: http://www.um.edu.uy/cee/
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  1. David, Drukker & Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras & Paula, Hernandez -erme, 2005. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth: a new panel-data approach," MPRA Paper 38225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
  3. Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2008. "Threshold Effects in the Public Capital Productivity: An International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," Working Papers halshs-00724208, HAL.
  4. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics.
  5. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
  6. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2009. "Inflation and Growth: New Evidence From a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
  8. Stanley Fischer, 1983. "Inflation and Growth," NBER Working Papers 1235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  10. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
  11. Vaona, A. & Schiavo, S., 2007. "Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 452-458, March.
  12. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  14. Raphael A. Espinoza & Ananthakrishnan Prasad & H. L. Leon, 2010. "Estimating the Inflation-Growth Nexus; A Smooth Transition Model," IMF Working Papers 10/76, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 813-843, October.
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