IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v30y2013icp149-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • Seleteng, Monaheng
  • Bittencourt, Manoel
  • van Eyden, Reneé

Abstract

The main objective of central banks around the world is the achievement and maintenance of price stability, which actually creates an environment conducive for faster economic growth. Therefore, it is important for policy makers to understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth in order to make sound policies. If inflation is detrimental to economic growth, then policy makers should aim for low rates of inflation. This leads to a question; how low should the inflation rate be? Previous research in the non-linearities of the inflation–growth relationship has found that a positive relationship exists when the inflation rate is low and a negative relationship when the inflation rate is high. This implies the existence of a threshold level of inflation at which the sign switches. In this paper we use panel data for the period 1980–2008 to examine the inflation–growth nexus in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and to endogenously determine the threshold level of inflation. To deal with problems of endogeneity and heterogeneity, the paper uses the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) method developed by González et al. (2005) to examine the non-linearities in the inflation–growth nexus. This technique further estimates the smoothness of the transition from a low inflation to a high inflation regime. The findings reveal a threshold level of 18.9%, above which inflation is detrimental to economic growth in the SADC region.

Suggested Citation

  • Seleteng, Monaheng & Bittencourt, Manoel & van Eyden, Reneé, 2013. "Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 149-156.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:149-156 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312003033
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Andrés González & Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Yukai Yang, 1910. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," CREATES Research Papers 2017-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    4. Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-763, November.
    5. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
    6. Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2006. "Threshold Effects in the Public Capital Productivity: an International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," Post-Print halshs-00257487, HAL.
    7. Omay, Tolga & Öznur Kan, Elif, 2010. "Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 996-1005, September.
    8. Robert Pollin & Andong Zhu, 2006. "Inflation and economic growth: a cross-country nonlinear analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 593-614.
    9. Vaona, A. & Schiavo, S., 2007. "Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 452-458, March.
    10. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    11. Pei-Pei Chen & Rangan Gupta, 2006. "An Investigation of Openness and Economic Growth Using Panel Estimation," Working Papers 200622, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
    13. Eggoh C. Jude, 2010. "Financial Development And Growth: A Panel Smooth Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-33, March.
    14. David, Drukker & Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras & Paula, Hernandez -erme, 2005. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth: a new panel-data approach," MPRA Paper 38225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    16. D. Hodge, 2006. "Inflation and growth in South Africa," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 163-180, March.
    17. Chang, Tsangyao & Chiang, Gengnan, 2011. "Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2404-2408.
    18. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 455-464, September.
    19. Chien-Chiang Lee & Swee Yoong Wong, 2005. "Inflationary Threshold Effects In The Relationship Between Financial Development And Economic Growth: Evidence From Taiwan And Japan," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 49-69, June.
    20. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    21. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    22. Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2016. "Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 332-351.
    23. Gilbert COLLETAZ & Christophe HURLIN, 2006. "Threshold Effects of the Public Capital Productivity : An International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1669, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    24. Ardeshir Sepehri & Saeed Moshiri, 2004. "Inflation-Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 191-207.
    25. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    26. Jude Eggoh, 2012. "Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 711-725, June.
    27. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manamba EPAPHRA, 2016. "Nonlinearities in Inflation and Growth Nexus: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 471-512, September.
    2. Thanh, Su Dinh, 2015. "Threshold effects of infl ation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 41-48.
    3. Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2016. "Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 332-351.
    4. Manoel Bittencourt & Renee van Eyden & Monaheng Seleteng, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth in the SADC: Some Panel Time-Series Evidence," Working Papers 201354, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Nawalage S. Cooray, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of Inflation-Growth Nexus in Developing Countries: The Case of Sri Lanka," Working Papers EMS_2013_21, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    6. Reneé van Eyden & Tolga Omay & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Inflation-Growth Nexus in Africa: Evidence from a Pooled CCE Multiple Regime Panel Smooth Transition Model," Working Papers 201504, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Madhu Sehrawat & A. K. Giri, 2015. "Re-examining the Threshold Effects in Inflation–Growth Nexus: Evidence from India," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(2), pages 57-67, Fabruary.
    8. Komain JIRANYAKUL, 2017. "Estimating the Threshold Level of Inflation for Thailand," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 150-155, June.
    9. Ndoricimpa, Arcade & Osoro, Nehemiah & Kidane, Asmerom, 2016. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in selected African regional economic communities: Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold modeling," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 41, pages 5-23.
    10. Djahini, Edém & Ayassou, Kokou, 2016. "Quel niveau de transformation économique pour réduire les inégalités de revenu en Afrique ?
      [What level of economic transformation for income inequality alleviation in Africa?]
      ," MPRA Paper 74944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mavikela, Nomahlubi & Mhaka, Simba & Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "The inflation-growth relationship in SSA inflation targeting countries," MPRA Paper 82141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:3:p:471-484 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2016. "Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 332-351.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Inflation; Threshold level; Non-linearities; PSTR model;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:149-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.