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Inflation Dynamics in Latin America

  • Carlos Capistrán
  • Manuel Ramos Francia

We analyze inflation's persistence in the 1980-2006 period for the ten largest Latin American economies using univariate time-series techniques. Although the estimated degree of inflation persistence appears to be different across countries, for the region as a whole the persistence seems to be very high. However, the estimated degree of persistence falls in all countries once we permit structural breaks in the mean of inflation. The timing of these breaks coincides with shifts in the monetary policy regimes and is similar across countries. Regardless of the changes in the mean, the degree of persistence appears to be decreasing in the region, even though for some countries persistence does not seem to be changing.

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File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7B4926588E-B90A-C12A-21C8-0049A216CBE2%7D.pdf
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Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2006-11.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-11
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