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Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation

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  • Todd E. Clark

Abstract

This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the distribution of persistence across consumption sectors; and (iii) whether persistence has changed. Assuming mean inflation to be unchanged within samples, the average persistence of disaggregate inflation is consistently below aggregate persistence. Taking into account an early 1990s shift in mean inflation identified by break tests?including tests applied to systems of disaggregate equations?yields much lower estimates of both aggregate and disaggregate persistence for 1984-02. But with the mean break taken into account, average disaggregate persistence is actually as great as aggregate inflation persistence. A factor model provides a natural framework for interpreting the relationship between aggregate and disaggregate persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd E. Clark, 2003. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 03-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 2003.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp03-11
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    Cited by:

    1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Staff Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
    2. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2010. "Rigidities and inflation persistence of services and regulated prices," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 193-208.
    3. Tomás Castagnino & Laura D’Amato, 2008. "Regime and Underlying Inflation Dynamics: ¿Generalized Comovement or Relative Price Adjustment?," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(52), pages 87-120, October -.
    4. Mojon, Benoît & Altissimo, Filippo & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2007. "Fast micro and slow macro: can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Working Paper Series 729, European Central Bank.
    5. Tomás Castagnino & Laura Inés D’Amato, 2013. "Régimen y dinámica inflacionaria subyacente: ¿comovimiento generalizado o ajuste de precios relativos?," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), Dinámica inflacionaria, persistencia y formación de precios y salarios, edition 1, chapter 2, pages 11-42, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    6. Dixon, Huw & Kara, Engin, 2006. "Understanding inflation persistence: a comparison of different models," Working Paper Series 672, European Central Bank.
    7. Rafal Raciborski, 2008. "Searching for additional sources of inflation persistence : the micro-price panel data approach," Working Paper Research 132, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 350-384, March.
    9. Tianfeng Li & June Wei, 2015. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Choi, Chi-Young & Matsubara, Kiyoshi, 2007. "Heterogeneity in the persistence of relative prices: What do the Japanese cities tell us?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 260-286, June.
    11. Gadzinski, Gregory & Orlandi, Fabrice, 2004. "Inflation persistence in the European Union, the euro area, and the United States," Working Paper Series 414, European Central Bank.
    12. Karl Whelan, 2005. "Testing parameter stability : a wild bootstrap approach," Open Access publications 10197/225, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    13. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    14. Nicholas Apergis, 2013. "The Stylized Facts of Greek Inflation: New Evidence on Persistence," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(1), pages 51-71, March.
    15. Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587.

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    Consumer price indexes;

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