IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uto/dipeco/201911.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Second Order Time Dependent Inflation Persistence in the United States: a GARCH-in-Mean Model with Time Varying Coefficients

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandra Canepa,

    ()

  • Menelaos G. Karanasos

    ()

  • Alexandros G. Paraskevopoulos,

    () (University of Turin)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the behavior of in?ation persistence in the United States. To model in?ation we estimate an autoregressive GARCH-in-mean model with variable coe¢ cients and we propose a new measure of second-order time varying persistence, which not only distinguishes between changes in the dynamics of in?ation and its volatility, but it also allows for feedback from nominal uncertainty to in?ation. Our empirical results suggest that in?ation persistence in the United States is best described as unchanged. Another important result relates to the Monte Carlo experiment evidence which reveal that if the model is misspeci?ed, then commonly used unit root tests will misclassify in?ation of being a nonstationary, rather than a stationary process.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Canepa, & Menelaos G. Karanasos & Alexandros G. Paraskevopoulos,, 2019. "Second Order Time Dependent Inflation Persistence in the United States: a GARCH-in-Mean Model with Time Varying Coefficients," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201911, University of Turin.
  • Handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:201911
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.est.unito.it/do/home.pl/Download?doc=/allegati/wp2019dip/wp_11_2019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
    2. Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996. "Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
    3. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 1998. "Conditional Means of Time Series Processes and Time Series Processes for Conditional Means," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1101-1118, November.
    4. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galõ, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    9. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Estimation and Forecasting in Models with Multiple Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 763-789.
    10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    11. Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2006. "A re-examination of the asymmetric power ARCH model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, January.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
    13. He, Changli & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1999. "FOURTH MOMENT STRUCTURE OF THE GARCH(p,q) PROCESS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 824-846, December.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2009. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2720, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
    17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    18. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    19. Menelaos Karanasos & Stefanie Schurer, 2008. "Is the Relationship between Inflation and Its Uncertainty Linear?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9, pages 265-286, August.
    20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    21. Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-197, April.
    22. Guglielmo Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2012. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 597-615, October.
    23. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    24. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    25. Conrad, Christian & Mammen, Enno, 2016. "Asymptotics for parametric GARCH-in-Mean models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 319-329.
    26. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    27. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
    28. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    29. Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Missing Link Between Inflation Uncertainty And Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 222-241, May.
    30. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
    31. Chandler, Gabriel & Polonik, Wolfgang, 2006. "Discrimination of Locally Stationary Time Series Based on the Excess Mass Functional," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 240-253, March.
    32. Karanasos, Menelaos, 1999. "The second moment and the autocovariance function of the squared errors of the GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 63-76, May.
    33. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    34. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    35. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 990, CESifo Group Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:201911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Piero Cavaleri) or (Marina Grazioli). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/detorit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.