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Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luca Onorante
  • Paolo Paesani

Abstract

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly owing to exogenous shocks. A sequential dummy procedure provides further evidence of a structural break coinciding with the introduction of the euro and resulting in lower long-run uncertainty. It also appears that the direction of causality has been reversed, and that in the euro period the Friedman-Ball link is empirically supported, implying that the ECB can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2009. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 909, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp909
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; inflation uncertainty; time-varying parameters; GARCH models; ECB; EMU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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