IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luca Onorante
  • Paolo Paesani

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly owing to exogenous shocks. A sequential dummy procedure provides further evidence of a structural break coinciding with the introduction of the euro and resulting in lower long-run uncertainty. It also appears that the direction of causality has been reversed, and that in the euro period the Friedman-Ball link is empirically supported, implying that the ECB can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 909.

in new window

Length: 20 p.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp909
Contact details of provider: Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin
Phone: xx49-30-89789-0
Fax: xx49-30-89789-200
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
  2. Elder, John, 2004. "Another Perspective on the Effects of Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 911-28, October.
  3. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  4. Stilianos Fountas & Alexandra Ioannidis & Menelaos Karanasos, 2004. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and a common European Monetary Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 30, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  5. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2003. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/40, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Testing for a unit root in a time series with a level shift at unknown time," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,72, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  7. Wilfling, Bernd & Maennig, Wolfgang, 2001. "Exchange rate dynamics in anticipation of time-contingent regime switching: modelling the effects of a possible delay," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-113, February.
  8. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  9. Benati, Luca & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "Evolving U.S. monetary policy and the decline of inflation predictability," Working Paper Series 0824, European Central Bank.
  10. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  11. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards An Understanding of the Real Effects and Costs of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 0303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September.
  13. Cunningham, Steven R. & Tang, Hong & Vilasuso, Jon R., 1997. "A Time Series Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation Uncertainty and Unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 731-751, October.
  14. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2004. "Has Euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Open Access publications 10197/251, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  16. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
  17. Conrad Christian & Karanasos Menelaos, 2005. "Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-38, December.
  18. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
  19. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro And Inflation Uncertainty In The European Monetary Union," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-01, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  20. A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  21. Benjamin Klein, 1975. "Our New Monetary Standard: The Measurement and Effects of Price Uncertainty," UCLA Economics Working Papers 062, UCLA Department of Economics.
  22. Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1996. "On Measuring the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Real GNP Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 163-75, January.
  23. Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
  24. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-84, May.
  25. Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  27. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  28. Apergis, Nicholas, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, volatility and causality: evidence from panel data and the G7 countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-191, May.
  29. Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Missing Link Between Inflation Uncertainty And Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 222-241, 05.
  30. Pourgerami, Abbas & Maskus, Keith E., 1987. "The effects of inflation on the predictability of price changes in Latin America: Some estimates and policy implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-290, February.
  31. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  32. Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
  33. Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05.
  34. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
  35. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 91-115, February.
  36. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 550-54, August.
  37. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  38. Angeloni, Ignazio & Aucremanne, Luc & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Working Paper Series 0597, European Central Bank.
  39. Geoffrey Shuetrim & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  40. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  41. Deaton, Angus S, 1977. "Involuntary Saving through Unanticipated Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 899-910, December.
  42. Ungar, Meyer & Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 1993. "Inflation and Its Unpredictability--Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 709-20, November.
  43. Klein, Benjamin, 1975. "Our New Monetary Standard: The Measurement and Effects of Price Uncertainty, 1880-1973," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(4), pages 461-84, December.
  44. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2006. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 1667, CESifo Group Munich.
  45. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp909. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.