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Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

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  • Conrad Christian

    () (Department of Economics, University of Mannheim)

  • Karanasos Menelaos

    () (Business School, Brunel University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the inflation dynamics of several countries belonging to the European Monetary Union and of the UK. We estimate the two main parameters driving the degree of persistence in inflation and its uncertainty using a dual long memory process. We also investigate the possible existence of heterogeneity in inflation dynamics across Euro area countries and examine the link between nominal uncertainty and macroeconomic performance measured by the inflation and output growth rates. Strong evidence is provided for the hypothesis that increased inflation raises nominal uncertainty in all countries. However, we find that uncertainty surrounding future inflation has a mixed impact on output growth. This result brings out an important asymmetry in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Europe in addition to the difference in the economic sizes of the countries. We also investigate whether one can find a correlation between central bank independence and inflation policy. Our conclusion is that the most independent central banks are in countries where inflation falls in response to increased uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Conrad Christian & Karanasos Menelaos, 2005. "Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-38, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:9:y:2005:i:4:n:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Conrad, Christian, 2010. "Non-negativity conditions for the hyperbolic GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 441-457.
    2. Menelaos Karanasosa & Stefanie Schurer, 2007. "Is the Relationship Between Inflation and its Uncertainty Linear?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0018, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 215-228.
    4. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
    6. Guglielmo Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2012. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 597-615.
    7. Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2013. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 354-362.
    8. repec:eee:revfin:v:34:y:2017:i:c:p:61-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gündüz, Yalin & Kaya, Orcun, 2014. "Impacts of the financial crisis on eurozone sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 425-442.
    10. Menelaos Karanasos & Stefanie Schurer, 2008. "Is the Relationship between Inflation and Its Uncertainty Linear?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9, pages 265-286, August.
    11. J. Kim & A. Kartsaklas & M. Karanasos, 2005. "The volume–volatility relationship and the opening of the Korean stock market to foreign investors after the financial turmoil in 1997," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, pages 245-271.
    12. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145888, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. repec:eee:jebusi:v:92:y:2017:i:c:p:45-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Figari, Francesco & Paulus, Alari & Sutherland, Holly & Tsakloglou, Panos & Verbist, Gerlinde & Zantomio, Francesca, 2012. "Taxing Home Ownership: Distributional Effects of Including Net Imputed Rent in Taxable Income," IZA Discussion Papers 6493, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    15. repec:zbw:rwirep:0018 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Meller, Barbara & Nautz, Dieter, 2009. "The impact of the European Monetary Union on inflation persistence in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2009/8, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    17. Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2009. "Dual long-memory, structural breaks and the link between turnover and the range-based volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 838-851.
    18. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2006. "The relationship between economic growth and real uncertainty in the G3," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 638-647, July.
    19. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2011. "The effects of uncertainty dynamics on exports, imports and productivity growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 174-188.
    20. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2006. "The impulse response function of the long memory GARCH process," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 34-41, January.
    21. Meller, Barbara & Nautz, Dieter, 2012. "Inflation persistence in the Euro area before and after the European Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1170-1176.
    22. Conrad, Christian, 2010. "Non-negativity conditions for the hyperbolic GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 441-457.

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