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Long-memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  • David K. Backus
  • Stanley E. Zin

We use a fractional difference model to reconcile two features of yields on US government bonds with modem asset pricing theory: the persistence of the short rate and variability of the long end of the yield curve. We suggest that this process might arise from the response of the heterogeneous agents to the changes in monetary policy.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/t0133.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0133.

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Date of creation: Mar 1993
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Publication status: published as Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 25 (August 1993, Part 2) pp681-700.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0133
Note: AP
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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 1991. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in the business cycle," Working Paper 9116, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Shea, Gary S, 1991. "Uncertainty and Implied Variance Bounds in Long-Memory Models of the Interest Rate Term Structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 287-312.
  4. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  5. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
  6. Campbell, John, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," Scholarly Articles 3122544, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1982. "An Equilibrium Model of Bond Pricing and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 301-329, September.
  8. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March.
  9. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
  10. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  11. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  12. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August.
  13. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-29, December.
  14. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  15. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
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