IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commodity price movements and PCE inflation


  • Bart Hobijn


With the recent run-up in crop and energy prices - and the subsequent sharp reversal of these trends - the effects of commodity price movements on U.S. inflation merit renewed attention. A study of the contributions of grain and oil prices to the PCE index of inflation suggests that the effects are more modest than one might expect. Moreover, commodity price increases affect relatively few goods prices: Higher crop prices translate narrowly into price hikes for food, tobacco, and gardening supplies; rising oil prices mainly influence fuel, energy, and transportation prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bart Hobijn, 2008. "Commodity price movements and PCE inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Nov).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2008:i:nov:n:v.14no.8

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Richard Peach & Charles Steindel, 2000. "A nation of spendthrifts? An analysis of trends in personal and gross saving," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Sep).
    3. Feldstein, Martin S., 1973. "Tax incentives, corporate saving, and capital accumulation in the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 159-171, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2012. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 597-615, October.
    2. James Davidson & Andreea Halunga & Tim Lloyd & Steve McCorriston & Wyn Morgan, 2016. "World Commodity Prices and Domestic Retail Food Price Inflation: Some Insights from the UK," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 566-583, September.
    3. Salas, Jorge, 2009. "¿Qué explica las fluctuaciones de la inflación en el Perú en el periodo 2002-2008? Evidencia de un análisis VAR estructural," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, pages 9-36.
    4. John C. Williams, 2011. "Will the financial crisis have a lasting effect on unemployment?," Speech 83, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Alisson Curátola de Melo, 2013. "Brazil’s Commodity Price Index," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 217-227 Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2008:i:nov:n:v.14no.8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.