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Inflation targeting and the inflation-inflation uncertainty relationship: evidence from Thailand

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  • James Payne

Abstract

This study extends the literature on the relationships between inflation and inflation volatility by examining the impact of inflation targeting on inflation volatility in Thailand. The ARIMA-GARCH model reveals that inflation targeting marginally reduced the degree of volatility persistence in response to inflationary shocks (i.e. inflation uncertainty). Granger-causality tests show that an increase in inflation causes an increase in inflation uncertainty. However, an increase in inflation uncertainty causes a decrease in inflation. Thus, the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Thailand support Holland's (1995) stabilization hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • James Payne, 2009. "Inflation targeting and the inflation-inflation uncertainty relationship: evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 233-238.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:233-238
    DOI: 10.1080/17446540802078007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility?: An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 247-274 Central Bank of Chile.
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    Cited by:

    1. Komain Jiranyakul & Timothy P. Opiela, 2011. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Output Growth and Inflation in Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 291-307, September.
    2. Bhar, Ramprasad & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2010. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(23), pages 5503-5510.
    3. repec:rej:journl:v:19:y:2016:i:61:p:3-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Akhand Akhtar Hossain & Popkarn Arwatchanakarn, 2016. "Inflation and inflation volatility in Thailand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(30), pages 2792-2806, June.
    5. Mesbah Fathy Sharaf, 2015. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Revisited: Evidence from Egypt," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Pellegrini, Santiago & Ruiz, Esther & Espasa, Antoni, 2011. "Prediction intervals in conditionally heteroscedastic time series with stochastic components," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 308-319.
    7. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.

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