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Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output Growth: Recent Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries

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Abstract

This paper investigates the links between inflation, its uncertainty and economic growth in five ASEAN countries over the period 1980: Q1-2011: Q3. We rely on the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model to explore the causal relationship among the three variables. The major findings are: (i) inflation uncertainty increases more in response to positive inflation surprises than to negative surprises in all countries; (ii) inflationary shocks affect positively inflation uncertainty as predicted by the Friedman-Ball hypothesis; (iii) there is no evidence to suggest that inflation uncertainty causes inflation, and; (iv) there is evidence that inflation affects growth negatively, both directly and indirectly (via the inflation uncertainty channel). The indirect effect is clearly stronger as it applies in all countries in the sample.

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  • Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2012. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output Growth: Recent Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries," Discussion Paper Series 2012_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jul 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2012_07
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Twari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Time-Frequency Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty for the U.S.: Evidence from Historical Data," Working Papers 201591, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2018. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 85191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation uncertainty; output growth; ASEAN;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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