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Inflation, inflation uncertainty and growth: are they related ?

We examine the relationship between inflation uncertainty, inflation and growth using annual historical data on industrial countries covering in many cases more than one century. Proxying inflation uncertainty by the conditional variance of inflation shocks, we obtain the following results. (1) There is significant evidence for the positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation supporting the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. (2) There is mixed evidence on the causal effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty. (3) There is strong evidence that inflation uncertainty is not detrimental to output growth.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Macedonia in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2010_12.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision: Dec 2010
Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2010_12
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.uom.gr/index.php?tmima=3

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  1. Alan Greenspan, 2004. "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 33-40, May.
  2. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-37, August.
  3. Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
  4. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
  5. Hwang, Y., 2007. "Causality between inflation and real growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 146-153, January.
  6. Fountas, Stilianos & Alexandra,Ioannidid, 2001. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and a Common European Monetary Policy," Working Papers 0054, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
  7. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  8. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
  9. John Thornton, 2007. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 858–870, April.
  10. Kevin B. Grier & �lan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
  11. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
  12. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  13. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Sanchez, Benito, 2005. "Re-examining inflation and inflation uncertainty in developed and emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 180-186, November.
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