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Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Are They Related?

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  • DON BREDIN
  • STILIANOS FOUNTAS

Abstract

We use a very general bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity‐in‐mean model and G7 monthly data covering the 1957–2003 period to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in most countries output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the output growth rate. Second, there is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Hence, contrary to popular belief, uncertainty about the inflation rate is not necessarily detrimental to economic growth but in some cases it may also enhance growth. Finally, there is mixed evidence on the effect of output uncertainty on inflation. In sum, our results indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance.

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  • Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2005. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Are They Related?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 58-76, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:73:y:2005:i:s1:p:58-76
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2005.00461.x
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    9. Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2010. "What Explains Output Volatility? Evidence from the G3," Discussion Paper Series 2010_09, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jul 2010.
    10. Freddy Heylen & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2007. "Crises and human capital accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 1261-1285, November.
    11. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2015. "The Effect of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries: A Double Threshold GARCH Model," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(1), pages 34-50, April.
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    14. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
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    16. Shah, Said Zamin & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Hook, Law Siong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2017. "Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-93.
    17. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
    18. B. Balaji & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2018. "Spillover Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainties in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 143-162, December.
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    21. Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
    22. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Srikanta Kundu & Nityananda Sarkar, 2018. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth: evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 390-413, September.
    23. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
    24. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2022. "World Commodity Prices and Economic Activity in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 347-374, April.
    25. David Cronin & Robert Kelly & Bernard Kennedy, 2011. "Money growth, uncertainty and macroeconomic activity: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 155-167, May.

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