The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth
This paper investigates the relationship between output volatility and growth using postwar real GDP data for the United States. We expand on recent research bydocumenting the asymmetric effect of recessions on output growth. The results presented in this paper suggest that output volatility is highest when the economy is contracting. While we find that the economy expands most rapidly following a recession, this expansion is offset by the negative impact of output uncertainty.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 68 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.southerneconomic.org/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991.
"Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986.
"Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?,"
NBER Working Papers
1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Bodman, Philip M & Crosby, Mark, 2002.
"The Australian Business Cycle: Joe Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?,"
Australian Economic Papers,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 191-207, June.
- Bodman, P.M. & Crosby, M., 1998. "The Australian Business Cycle: Job Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 649, The University of Melbourne.
- Woodford, Michael, 1986.
"Learning to Believe in Sunspots,"
86-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Speight, Alan E H, 1999. "UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 175-84, May.
- Bradley, Michael D & Jansen, Dennis W, 1997. "Nonlinear Business Cycle Dynamics: Cross-country Evidence on the Persistence of Aggregate Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 495-509, July.
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Adián R. Pagan & Hernán Sabau, 1992. "Consistency tests for heteroskedastic and risk models," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 7(1), pages 3-30.
- Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-36, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:68:3:y:2002:p:683-692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Razzolini)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.