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The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth

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  • Henry, O.T.
  • Olekalns, N.

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between output volatility and growth using post-war real GDP data for the United States. We expand on recent research by Beaudry and Koop (1993) documenting the asymmetric effect of recessions on output growth. The results presented in this paper suggest that output volatility is highest when the economy is contracting. While we find that the economy expands most rapidly following a recession, this expansion is offset by the negative impact of output uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Henry, O.T. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 745, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:745
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2005. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Are They Related?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 58-76, September.
    2. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related? Evidence from five European countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 445-459.
    3. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
    4. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    5. Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ãlan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2005. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 362-370, May.
    6. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
    7. Jorge M. Andraz & Nelia M. Norte, 2013. "Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 18(2), pages 91-122, September.
    8. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "Cross-Country Evidence On Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance And Garch Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 509-541, September.
    9. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2010. "Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 511-537, December.
    10. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
    11. Ageli, Mohammed, 2013. "Econometric Testing of the Displacement Effect: the Saudi Experience," MPRA Paper 50565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
    13. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    14. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    15. Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2015. "Is the financial sector Luxembourg?s engine of growth?," BCL working papers 97, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    16. Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2009. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in Asian Countries ," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 215-229, May.
    17. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
    18. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.
    19. Döhrn, Roland & Groneck, Max & Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2009. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weltwirtschaft kommt wieder in Schwung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 60(2), pages 5-31.
    20. Trypsteen, Steven, 2017. "The growth-volatility nexus: New evidence from an augmented GARCH-M model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 15-25.
    21. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 972-986, October.
    22. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2011. "The Link between Output Growth and Output Volatility in Five Crisis-Affected Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 46068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Olan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2002. "Non-linear Co-Movements in Output Growth: Evidence from the United States and Australia," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 857, The University of Melbourne.
    24. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2006. "The relationship between economic growth and real uncertainty in the G3," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 638-647, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECONOMIC RECESSION ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; PRODUCTION;

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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