Domestic or U.S. News: What Drives Canadian Financial Markets?
Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Canadian and U.S. central bank communication and macroeconomic news on Canadian bond, stock, and foreign exchange market returns and volatility. First, central bank communication and macro news from both countries have an impact on Canadian financial markets. Second, Canadian central bank communication is more relevant than its U.S. counterpart, whereas in the case of macro news, that originating from the United States dominates. Third, we find evidence that the impact of Canadian news reaches its maximum when the Canadian target rate departs from the Federal Funds target rate (2002–2004) and thereafter. The introduction of fixed announcement dates (FAD) initially does not cause a noticeable break in the data. Finally, Canadian and U.S. target rate changes lead to higher price volatility, and so does other U.S. news. Other Canadian news, however, lowers price volatility.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming in|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jason Andreou, 2005. "Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Fixed-Income Markets," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Summer), pages 11-19.
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
- Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
- Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2005.
"The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2005-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2006. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
- Nicolas Parent, 2003. "Transparency and the Response of Interest Rates to the Publication of Macroeconomic Data," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Winter), pages 29-34.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernd Hayo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.