EMU-related news and financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
We analyse the impact of news on five financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland using a newly constructed data set in a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) framework. Macroeconomic shocks (on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, current account and trade balance) are constructed as deviations from expected values. Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)-related political and fiscal news is captured as news dummies. Macroeconomic shocks significantly affect short-term interest rates and, to a lesser extent, other financial variables. Political and fiscal news has an impact on long-term bond yields and exchange rates. News displayed prominently in our media sources has a greater impact on financial markets than other news and, in addition, the sources of news themselves matter. We also discover asymmetric effects of news within markets. Finally, using a pooled GARCH model we find that macroeconomic shocks have the strongest impact on financial markets in Hungary, while political news has the largest influence in both Hungary and Poland.
Volume (Year): 44 (2012)
Issue (Month): 31 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chaney, Eric, 2008. "Assessing pacification policy in Iraq: Evidence from Iraqi financial markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-16, March.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
- M A S Joyce & V Read, 1999.
"Asset price reactions to RPI announcements,"
Bank of England working papers
94, Bank of England.
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003.
"How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?,"
NBER Working Papers
9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mitchel Y. Abolafia (ed.), 2005. "Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2788.
- Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448.
- Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
- Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Andritzky, Jochen R. & Bannister, Geoffrey J. & Tamirisa, Natalia T., 2007.
"The impact of macroeconomic announcements on emerging market bonds,"
Emerging Markets Review,
Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 20-37, March.
- Jochen R. Andritzky & Geoffrey J Bannister & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2005. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds," IMF Working Papers 05/83, International Monetary Fund.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Staff Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
- Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006.
"Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
- Juraj Valachy & Ev??en Ko?enda, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Volatility: Comparison of the Snake and Visegrad," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-622, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Susan M Schadler & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2007. "Do Economistsâ€™ and Financial Marketsâ€™ Perspectives on the New Members of the EU differ?," IMF Working Papers 07/65, International Monetary Fund.
- Zeynep Ãnder & Can Åimga-Mugan, 2006. "How Do Political and Economic News Affect Emerging Markets? Evidence from Argentina and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(4), pages 50-77, July.
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, December.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aggarwal, Raj & Schirm, David C., 1998. "Asymmetric impact of trade balance news on asset prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 83-100, January.
- Garima Vasishtha & Taimur Baig & Manmohan S. Kumar & Edda Zoli, 2006. "Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies; How Does Debt Matter?," IMF Working Papers 06/184, International Monetary Fund.
- Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2000.
"The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central Europe,"
The Economics of Transition,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 623-638, November.
- Jan Hanousek and Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek and Randall K. Filer, 1997. "The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 78, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:31:p:4037-4053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.