Stock Prices and Economic News
This paper examines the daily response of stock prices to announcements about the money supply, inflation, real economic activity, and the discountrate. Except for the discount rate, survey data on market participants' expectations of these announcements are used to identify the unexpected component of the announcements in order to test the efficient markets hypothesis that only the unexpected part of any announcement, the surprise,moves stock prices. The empirical results support this hypothesis and indicate further that surprises related to monetary policy significantly affect stock prices. There is only limited evidence of an impact from inflation surprises and no evidence of an impact from real activity surprises on the announcement days. There is also only weak evidence of stock price responses to surprises beyond the announcement day.
|Date of creation:||Mar 1984|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Pearce, Douglas K. and V. Vance Roley. "Stock Prices an Economic News." Journal of Business, Vol. 58, No. 1, (January 1985), pp. 49-67.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Raymond E. Lombra & Raymond G. Torto, 1977. "Discount Rate Changes and Announcement Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 91(1), pages 171-176.
- Niederhoffer, Victor, 1971. "The Analysis of World Events and Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(2), pages 193-219, April.
- Martin Feldstein, 1979.
"Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
0403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feldstein, Martin, 1980. "Inflation, tax rules and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 309-331, July.
- Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1983. " The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1323-33, September.
- Feldstein, Martin, 1980.
"Inflation and the Stock Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 839-47, December.
- Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March.
- Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Inflation and the Valuation of Corporate Equities," NBER Working Papers 0824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
- V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Weekly money supply announcements and the volatility of short-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Apr, pages 3-15.
- Waud, Roger N, 1970. "Public Interpretation of Federal Reserve Discount Rate Changes: Evidence on the 'Announcement Effect'," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 231-50, March.
- Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
- Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-96, October.
- Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-36, April.
- Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-58, August.
- Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
- Urich, Thomas & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "Market Response to the Weekly Money Supply Announcements in the 1970s," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1063-72, December.
- Grossman, Jacob, 1981. "The "Rationality" of Money Supply Expectations and the Short-Run Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Surprises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 409-24, November.
- Lloyd-Davies, Peter & Canes, Michael, 1978. "Stock Prices and the Publication of Second-Hand Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 43-56, January.
- Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 344-54, August.
- Castanias, Richard P, II, 1979. "Macroinformation and the Variability of Stock Market Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 439-50, May.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 856-60, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.