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The Response of Interest Rates to the Federal Reserve's Weekly Money Announcements: The "Puzzle" of Anticipated Money

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  • Richard Deaves
  • Angelo Melino
  • James E. Pesando

Abstract

Researchers, using the survey conducted by Money Market Services, Inc., have found that the anticipated component in the Federal Reserve's weekly money supply announcement is negatively correlated with the post- announcement change in market yields. We prove that eliminating a (downward) bias in the measure of anticipated money can, in theory, eliminate this puzzle, but that improving the efficiency of an already unbiased measure cannot. We find, using Canadian as well as U.S. interest rate data, that correcting the downward bias in the survey measure reduces, but does not eliminate, the role of anticipated money.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Deaves & Angelo Melino & James E. Pesando, 1987. "The Response of Interest Rates to the Federal Reserve's Weekly Money Announcements: The "Puzzle" of Anticipated Money," NBER Working Papers 2125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Grossman, Jacob, 1981. "The "Rationality" of Money Supply Expectations and the Short-Run Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Surprises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 409-424, November.
    3. Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 344-354, August.
    4. Pesando, James E, 1979. "On the Random Walk Characteristics of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates in an Efficient Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 457-466, November.
    5. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 1011-1039.
    6. Hein, Scott E, 1985. "The Response of Short-term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 264-271, May.
    7. Thomas Urich & Paul Wachtel, 1983. "The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcement," NBER Working Papers 1090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    9. Michael T. Belongia & Rik Hafer & Richard G. Sheehan, 1986. "A note on the temporal stability of the interest rate-weekly money relationship," Working Papers 1986-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
    11. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    12. Urich, Thomas & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "Market Response to the Weekly Money Supply Announcements in the 1970s," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1063-1072, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    2. Poole, William, 1988. "Monetary Policy Lessons of Recent Inflation and Disinflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 73-100, Summer.
    3. Daniel L. Thornton, 1989. "Tests of covered interest rate parity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 55-66.
    4. Rik Hafer & Richard G. Sheehan, 1987. "On the response of interest rates to unexpected weekly money: are policy changes important?," Working Papers 1987-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Deaves, Richard & Miu, Peter & Barry White, C., 2008. "Canadian stock market multiples and their predictive content," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 457-466.
    6. Thomas Mann & Richard Dowen, 2004. "The Influence of Monetary Conditions on the Response of Interest Rate Futures to M1 Releases: 1976–1998," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7‐8), pages 1125-1150, September.
    7. Peter C. Liu, 1994. "Are Money Announcement Forecasts Rational?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 475-483, November.

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