The Response of Interest Rates to the Federal Reserve's Weekly Money Announcements: The "Puzzle" of Anticipated Money
Researchers, using the survey conducted by Money Market Services, Inc., have found that the anticipated component in the Federal Reserve's weekly money supply announcement is negatively correlated with the post- announcement change in market yields. We prove that eliminating a (downward) bias in the measure of anticipated money can, in theory, eliminate this puzzle, but that improving the efficiency of an already unbiased measure cannot. We find, using Canadian as well as U.S. interest rate data, that correcting the downward bias in the survey measure reduces, but does not eliminate, the role of anticipated money.
|Date of creation:||Jan 1987|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Deaves, Richard, Angelo Melino, and James E. Pesando. "The Response of Interest Rates to the Federal Reserve's Weekly Money Announcements: The "Puzzle" of Anticipated Money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 19, No. 3, May 1987, pp. 393-404.|
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