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Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates


  • V. Vance Roley
  • Carl E. Walsh


Evidence on the relationship between unanticipated money and interestrates has been provided by two types of studies. First, several researchers have investigated the relationship using quarterly data. Second, a number of researchers have examined the effect of money announcement surprises on interest rates. In both instances, the correlation between money surprises and interest rates has usually been found to be non-negative.This paper first provides an interpretation of the correlation between unanticipated money and interest rates in terms of Federal Reserve policy objectives and operating procedures. Then, the correlation of unanticipated money and both short- and long-term interest rates is examined over weekly intervals, combining several aspects of the previous quarterly and announcement studies. In addition, the distinction between unpredicted and unperceived money also is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1984. "Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1278
    Note: ME

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Grossman, Jacob, 1981. "The "Rationality" of Money Supply Expectations and the Short-Run Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Surprises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 409-424, November.
    2. Pesando, James E, 1979. "On the Random Walk Characteristics of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates in an Efficient Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 457-466, November.
    3. Barro, Robert J. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1980. "Money stock revisions and unanticipated money growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 257-267, April.
    4. Mishkin, Frederie S., 1981. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-55.
    5. Makin, John H, 1983. "Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 374-384, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartley, Peter R. & Walsh, Carl E., 1991. "Inside money and monetary neutrality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 395-416.
    2. Peter C. Liu, 1994. "Are Money Announcement Forecasts Rational?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 475-483, November.

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