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Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets Approach

  • Frederic S. Mishkin

This paper is an application of efficient markets theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and long-term interest rates. This approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure on this relationship that allows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests. In the interest of ascertaining the robustness of the results, many different empirical tests are carried out in this paper, and they uniformly do not support the proposition that increases in the money supply are correlated with declines in long rates.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0517.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0517.

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Date of creation: Jul 1980
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Publication status: published as Mishkin, Frederic S. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets Approach." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 7, No. 1, (January 1981), pp. 1-27.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0517
Note: EFG
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  1. Ray C. Fair, 1977. "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 446, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-21, May.
  3. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-36, April.
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