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Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach

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  • Mishkin, Frederie S.

Abstract

This paper is an application of efficient markets theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and long-term interest rates. This approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure on this relationship that allows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests. In the interest of ascertaining the robustness of the results, many different empirical tests are carried out in this paper, and they uniformly do not support the proposition that increases in the money supply are correlated with declines in long rates.
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  • Mishkin, Frederie S., 1981. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-55.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:7:y:1981:i:1:p:29-55
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    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1165-1179, September.
    2. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-336, April.
    3. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-421, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter R. Hartley, 1983. "Rational Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Chapters,in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 153-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Should Private Pensions Be Indexed?," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, pages 211-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Are Forign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related and Does it Really Matter?," NBER Working Papers 4377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Wasim Shahid Malik, 2007. "Monetary Policy Objectives in Pakistan : An Empirical Investigation," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22212, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
    6. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1991. "Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock," NBER Working Papers 3920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sule Ozler, 1986. "Valuation of Rescheduled Loans, 1978-1983: A Rational Expectations Approach," UCLA Economics Working Papers 414, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Magda Kandil, 2006. "On the Transmission Mechanism of Policy Shocks in Developing Countries," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 117-149.
    10. Roley, V Vance & Walsh, Carl E, 1984. "Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 49-54, May.
    11. Christoph Zenger, 1985. "Zinssätze und Inflation in der Schweiz: Ein alternativer Test des Fisher-Effektes," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 121(IV), pages 353-374, December.
    12. Tarhan, Vefa, 1995. "Does the federal reserve affect asset prices?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1199-1222.
    13. Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
    14. Sule Ozler, 1988. "Rescheduling and Bank Value: A Rational Expectations Approach," UCLA Economics Working Papers 488, UCLA Department of Economics.
    15. Benjamin Kim & Noor Ghazali, 1998. "The Liquidity Effect of Money Shocks on Short-Term Interest Rates: Some International Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 49-63.
    16. Eric Hillebrand & Faik Koray, 2008. "Interest rate volatility and home mortgage loans," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2381-2385.
    17. Fahmy, Yasser A. F. & Kandil, Magda, 2003. "The Fisher effect: new evidence and implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 451-465.
    18. Tony Caporale & Barbara McKiernan, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and interest rates: Further evidence on the liquidity effect," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(2), pages 306-316, June.
    19. David S. Jones & V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Evans, Paul, 1981. "Why have interest rates been so volatile?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 5, pages 47-67.
    21. Yash P. Mehra, 1985. "Inflationary expectations, money growth, and the vanishing liquidity effect of money on interest : a further investigation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar, pages 23-35.
    22. M. A. Akhtar, 1995. "Monetary Policy And Long-Term Interest Rates: A Survey Of Empirical Literature," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 110-130, July.

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