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An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy

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  • Abel, Andrew B.
  • Mishkin, Frederic S.

Abstract

This paper analyzes an important class of models in which expectations play an important role. Topics included in the analysis are tests of: (1) rationality of forecasts in either market or survey data, (2) capital market efficiency, (3) the short-run neutrality of monetary policy and, (4) Granger causality in macroeconometric models. The common elements of these tests are highlighted. In particular, cross-equation tests for rationality or the short-run neutrality of money are shown to be equivalent to more common regression tests in the literature. Also discussed are the conditions for identification and the implications for whether hypotheses are testable.
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  • Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:11:y:1983:i:1:p:3-24
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    1. William Poole, 2001. "Expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-10.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1978. "Efficient-Markets Theory: Implications for Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 707-752.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guy V. G. Stevens & Dara Akbarian, 1994. "On risk, rational expectations, and efficient asset markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 478, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 1988. "Two-Step, Instrumental Variable and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Multivariate Rational Expectations Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 493, UCLA Department of Economics.
    4. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review Of Alternative Expectations Regimes In Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, And Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(2), October.
    5. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
    6. repec:rim:rimwps:46-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "U.S. Monetary Policy Regimes and U.S.-Japan Financial Relations," NBER Working Papers 1858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dechow, Patricia M. & Sloan, Richard G., 1997. "Returns to contrarian investment strategies: Tests of naive expectations hypotheses," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-27, January.
    9. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2000. "Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns," NBER Working Papers 7699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Landon, Stuart, 1995. "Testing aggregate neutrality with heterogeneous sectors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 131-148.
    11. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: An alternative view," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 455-466, December.
    12. Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1997. "The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1687-1707, December.
    13. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1998. "Quality expectations, reputation, and price," MPRA Paper 9774, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cupertino, César Medeiros & Martinez, Antonio Lopo & da Costa, Newton C.A., 2015. "Earnings manipulations by real activities management and investors’ perceptions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 309-323.
    15. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 788-802, September.
    16. Hirshleifer, David & Kewei Hou & Teoh, Siew Hong & Yinglei Zhang, 2004. "Do investors overvalue firms with bloated balance sheets?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 297-331, December.
    17. H. Bakhshi & G. Kapetanios & T. Yates, 2005. "Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 539-553, October.
    18. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Schaefer, Matthew P. & Myers, Robert J., 1999. "Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations And Market Efficiency In The Us Beef Cattle Industry," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21487, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    21. George Papanastasopoulos & Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Tao Wang, 2007. "The Implications of Retained and Distributed Earnings for Future Profitability and Market Mispricing," Working Paper series 46_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    22. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review Of Alternative Expectations Regimes In Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, And Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(2), October.

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