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A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992)
[The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour to the literature published until 1992)]

  • Silva Lopes, Artur

The main purpose of this work is to provide a panoramic and almost exhaustive view on the "rational expectations hypothesis" literature published until 1992. Several issues less well known are emphasized. Many results and comments are integrated and presented in a somewhat innovative fashion.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9699.

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Date of creation: 07 Jun 1994
Date of revision: 23 Jul 2008
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9699
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  4. Rush, Mark & Waldo, Douglas, 1988. "On the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition and a Keynesian Alternative," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 498-503, June.
  5. Batchelor, R A, 1986. "Quantitative v. Qualitative Measures of Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(2), pages 99-120, May.
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  7. Jonathan S. Leonard, 1980. "Wage Expectations in the Labor Market: Survey Evidence on Rationality," NBER Working Papers 0440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  27. Stockton, David J & Glassman, James E, 1987. "An Evaluation of the Forecast Performance of Alternative Models of Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 108-17, February.
  28. Wallis, Kenneth F & Whitley, John D, 1991. " Large-Scale Econometric Models of National Economies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(2), pages 283-314.
  29. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Inflation Expectations and Money Growth in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 149-61, March.
  30. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1976. "Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 499-522, June.
  31. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  32. Pearce, Douglas K, 1987. "Short-term Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Monthly Survey: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 388-95, August.
  33. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1977. "An Empirical Investigation of Inflationary Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 39(4), pages 291-99, November.
  34. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 293-311, October.
  35. Lai, Kon S., 1990. "An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-65, January.
  36. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  37. Rich, Robert W, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 682-86, November.
  38. Peel, D. A. & Pope, P. F., 1989. "Empirical evidence on the properties of exchange rate forecasts and the risk premium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 387-391, December.
  39. Fourgeaud Claude & Gourieroux Christian & Pradel J, 1983. "Modèles a anticipations rationnelles apprentissage par regression," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8327, CEPREMAP.
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  41. Boland, Lawrence A, 1979. "A Critique of Friedman's Critics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 503-22, June.
  42. Schroeter, John R. & Smith, Scott L., 1986. "A Reexamination of the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Staff General Research Papers 11119, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  43. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
  44. Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  45. Fischer, Andreas M, 1989. "Unit Roots and Survey Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 451-63, November.
  46. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August.
  47. Deaves, Richard & Melino, Angelo & Pesando, James E., 1987. "The response of interest rates to the Federal Reserve's weekly money announcements : The 'puzzle' of anticipated money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 393-404, May.
  48. Glazer, Rashi & Steckel, Joel H. & Winer, Russell S., 1990. "Judgmental forecasts in a competitive environment: Rational vs. adaptive expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 149-162, July.
  49. Cyert, Richard M & DeGroot, Morris H, 1974. "Rational Expectations and Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 521-36, May/June.
  50. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
  51. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1987. "Market efficiency and cointegration," Research Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  52. Stein, Jerome L, 1981. "Monetarist, Keynesian, and New Classical Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 139-44, May.
  53. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Expectations, Risk and Uncertainty in the Foreign Exchange Market: Some Results Based on Survey Data," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(2), pages 142-53, June.
  54. Grether, David M., . "Recent Psychological Studies of Behavior Under Uncertainty," Working Papers 82, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  55. Laurence Ball, 1991. "The genesis of inflation and the costs of disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 439-461.
  56. Baghestani, Hamid, 1992. "Survey Evidence on the Muthian Rationality of the Inflation Forecasts of U.S. Consumers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 173-86, May.
  57. Cukierman, Alex, 1986. "Measuring inflationary expectations: A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 315-324, March.
  58. Evans, George & Gulamani, Riyaz, 1984. "Tests for Rationality of the Carlson-Parkin Inflation Expectations Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, February.
  59. Jordan, James S. & Radner, Roy, 1982. "Rational expectations in microeconomic models: An overview," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-223, April.
  60. Bryan, Michael F & Gavin, William T, 1986. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 539-44, November.
  61. Stockman, Alan C., 1987. "Economic theory and exchange rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 3-15.
  62. Pearce, Douglas K, 1979. "Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation: Forecast Performance and Interest Rate Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 447-56, November.
  63. Patterson, K D & Heravi, S M, 1992. "Efficient Forecasts or Measurement Errors? Some Evidence for Revisions to United Kingdom GDP Growth Rates," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(3), pages 249-63, September.
  64. Baghestani, Hamid & Noori, Esmail, 1988. "On the rationality of the Michigan monthly survey of inflationary expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 333-335.
  65. Blume, L. E. & Bray, M. M. & Easley, D., 1982. "Introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 313-317, April.
  66. Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. DeCanio, Stephen J, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 47-57, February.
  68. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : New evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 277-281.
  69. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  70. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  71. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 465.
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  73. Maddock, Rodney & Carter, Michael, 1982. "A Child's Guide to Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 39-51, March.
  74. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-36, April.
  75. Horne, Jocelyn, 1981. "Rational Expectations and the Defris-Williams Inflationary Expectations Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(158), pages 261-68, September.
  76. Blake, David, 1984. "Complete systems methods of estimating models with rational and adaptive expectations : A case study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 137-150, March.
  77. Lahiri, Kajal & Zaporowski, Mark, 1987. "More Flexible Use of Survey Data on Expectations in Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 68-76, January.
  78. Zellner, Arnold, 1986. "Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 45-48.
  79. Ravallion, Martin, 1985. "The Information Efficiency of Traders' Price Expectations in a Bangladesh Price Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 171-84, May.
  80. Roy H. Webb, 1987. "The irrelevance of tests for bias in series of macroeconomic forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 3-9.
  81. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March.
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  84. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  85. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1988. "On the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition and a Keynesian Alternative: A Rejoinder," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 504-08, June.
  86. Jeong, Jinook & Maddala, G S, 1991. "Measurement Errors and Tests for Rationality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 431-39, October.
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  92. Stockton, David J & Struckmeyer, Charles S, 1989. "Tests of the Specification and Predictive Accuracy of Nonnested Models of Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 275-83, May.
  93. Chow, Gregory C, 1989. "Rational versus Adaptive Expectations in Present Value Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 376-84, August.
  94. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
  95. Kapur, Deep & Ravallion, Martin, 1988. "Rational expectations as long-run equilibria: Tests for Indian securities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 363-367.
  96. Batchelor, Roy A & Dua, Pami, 1989. "Household versus Economist Forecasts of Inflation: A Reassessment: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 252-57, May.
  97. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
  98. Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "What Do Investment Managers Know? An Empirical Study of Practitioners' Predictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(218), pages 185-202, May.
  99. Figlewski, Stephen & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "The Formation of Inflationary Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 1-10, February.
  100. Muscatelli, V A, 1989. "A Comparison of the 'Rational Expectations' and 'General-to-Specific' Approaches to Modelling the Demand for M1," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 353-75, November.
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  102. Gourieroux, Christian & Pradel, Jacqueline, 1986. "Direct test of the rational expectation hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 265-284, April.
  103. Batchelor, R. A., 1982. "Expectations, output and inflation : The European experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25.
  104. Maccini, Louis J, 1981. "Adjustment Lags, Economically Rational Expectations and Price Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 213-22, May.
  105. Cagan, Phillip, 1991. "Expectations in the German hyperinflation reconsidered," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 552-560, December.
  106. R. W. Hafer & David H. Resler, 1981. "On the rationality of inflation forecasts: a new look at the Livingston data," Working Papers 1981-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  107. Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Predictive Efficiency of Economic Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 331-43, July.
  108. Fackler, James & Stanhouse, Bryan, 1977. "Rationality of the Michigan Price Expectations Data: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 662-66, November.
  109. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1991. "Blue Chip Rationality Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 692-705, November.
  110. Avraham, David & Ungar, Meyer & Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 1987. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : An empirical note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 291-293.
  111. Laidler, David E W & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 741-809, December.
  112. Levy, Amnon & Spivak, Avia, 1988. "How does the public perceive an unprecedented rise in inflation: The case of inflationary expectations in Israel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 273-282.
  113. Struth, Friedrich K, 1984. "Modelling Expectations Formation with Parameter-Adaptive Filters: An Empirical Application to the Livingston Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(3), pages 211-39, August.
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