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Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data


  • Rich, Robert W


This paper develops a unified econometric approach for testing the rationality of expectations from survey data series. The paper employs the estimation techniques of Hansen (1982) and Eichenbaum, Hansen and Singleton (1982) to conduct tests of unbiasedness, efficiency and orthogonality for the SRC expected price change data. In contrast to the existing literature, the analysis takes careful account of serial correlation and conditional heteroskedasticity in the disturbance terms. The results do not reject the properties of unbiasedness, efficiency or othogonality for this survey data series. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Rich, Robert W, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 682-686, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:71:y:1989:i:4:p:682-86

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    2. Orley Ashenfelter & David Card, 1982. "Time Series Representations of Economic Variables and Alternative Models of the Labour Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(5), pages 761-782.
    3. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    4. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
    5. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bhag78-1, January.
    8. Kunst, Robert & Neusser, Klaus, 1986. "A forecasting comparison of some var techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 447-456.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
    3. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
    4. Miah, Fazlul & Rahman, M. Saifur & Albinali, Khalid, 2016. "Rationality of survey based inflation expectations: A study of 18 emerging economies’ inflation forecasts," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 158-166.
    5. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    6. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992)
      [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour
      ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    7. Ilek, David & Ilek, Alex, 2007. "The Information Content of Inflationary Expectations Derived from Bond Prices in Israel," MPRA Paper 4704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reid, Monique B. & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Forecasting the South African inflation rate: On asymmetric loss and forecast rationality," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 82-92.
    9. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    10. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
    11. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 1999. "Inflationary expectations and rationality revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 331-338, March.

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