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Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations

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Abstract

Survey data provide a new measure of exchange-rate expectations superior to the forward rate in that no risk premium interferes. The authors test standard propositions using three sources of survey data. The authors estimate extrapolative, adaptive, and regressive models of expectations. Static or "random walk" expectations and bandwagon expectations are rejected: variables other than the contemporaneous spot rate receive positive weight. A 10 percent appreciation of the dollar generates an expectation of future depreciation over the coming year estimated at 2 percent. In comparing expectations to the true process governing the spot rate, the authors find statistically significant bias. Copyright 1987 by American Economic Association.
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Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt1972q8wm
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William H. Branson & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1991. "International Adjustment with Wage Rigidity," NBER Chapters,in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 13-44 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Girton, Lance & Henderson, Dale W., 1976. "Financial capital movements and central bank behavior in a two-country, short-run portfolio balance model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 33-61, January.
    3. Jeffrey Sachs, 1980. "Wages, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Macroeconomic Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 94(4), pages 731-747.
    4. Taylor, John B., 1985. "International coordination in the design of macroeconomic policy rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 53-81.
    5. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
    6. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 1-76.
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