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Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions

  • Grant McQueen
  • V. Vance Roley
Registered author(s):

    Previous research finds that fundamental macroeconomic news has little effect on stock prices. This study shows that after allowing for different stages of the business cycle, a stronger relationship between stock prices and news is evident. In particular, the empirical results suggest that the effect of news about real economic activity depends on the varying responses of expected cash flows relative to equity discount rates. When the economy is strong, for example, the stock market responds negatively to good news about real economic activity, reflecting the larger effect on discount rates relative to expected cash flows.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3520.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3520.

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    Date of creation: Nov 1990
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: published as Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 6, no. 3 (1993): 683-707.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3520
    Note: ME
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. David H. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," Working papers 487, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1987. "Macroeconomic information and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 131-140, May.
    3. Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March.
    4. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1983. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Smirlock, Michael J & Yawitz, Jess B, 1985. " Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1141-58, September.
    6. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Martin Feldstein, 1978. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 0276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
    9. V. Vance Roley & Douglas K. Pearce, 1988. "Firm characteristics, unanticipated inflation, and stock returns," Research Working Paper 88-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
    11. Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 344-54, August.
    12. V. Vance Roley & Rick Troll, 1984. "The impact of discount rate changes on market interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jan, pages 27-39.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
    15. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1983. " The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1323-33, September.
    16. Ferson, Wayne E. & Merrick, John Jr., 1987. "Non-stationarity and stage-of-the-business-cycle effects in consumption-based asset pricing relations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 127-146, March.
    17. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    18. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1988. "The Information Content of Discount Rate Announcements and Their Effect on Market Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 167-80, May.
    19. Hakkio, Craig S. & Pearce, Douglas K., 1992. "Discount rate policy under alternative operating procedures: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 55-72.
    20. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-83, May.
    21. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-96, October.
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