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Firm characteristics, unanticipated inflation, and stock returns

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  • V. Vance Roley
  • Douglas K. Pearce

Abstract

This paper re-examines the effects of nominal contracts on the relationship between unanticipated inflation and individual stock's rate of return. This study differs in three main ways from previous research. First, announced inflation data are used to examine the effects of unanticipated inflation. Second, a different specification is used to obtain more efficient estimates. Third, additional nominal contracts are considered. The empirical results indicate that time-varying firm characteristics related to inflation predominately determine the effect of unanticipated inflation on a stock's rate of return. A firm's debt-equity ratio appears to be particularly important in determining the response.
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Suggested Citation

  • V. Vance Roley & Douglas K. Pearce, 1988. "Firm characteristics, unanticipated inflation, and stock returns," Research Working Paper 88-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:88-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Levinsohn, James & MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K, 1990. "A Simple, Consistent Estimator for Disturbance Components in Financial Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 516-520, August.
    2. Ciner, Cetin, 2015. "Are equities good inflation hedges? A frequency domain perspective," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 12-17.
    3. Steven A. Sharpe, 1999. "Stock prices, expected returns, and inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Graham, Michael & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Piljak, Vanja, 2016. "Global economic activity as an explicator of emerging market equity returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 424-435.
    5. Francisco Jareno, 2008. "Spanish stock market sensitivity to real interest and inflation rates: an extension of the Stone two-factor model with factors of the Fama and French three-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3159-3171.
    6. Michael Weber & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Harjoat Bhamra, 2017. "Deflation, Sticky Leverage and Asset Prices," 2017 Meeting Papers 796, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. repec:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:61-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ross Jennings & Gustavo Maturana, 2005. "The Usefulness Of Chilean Inflation Accounting," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 8(1), pages 85-118.
    10. Reffett, Kevin L., 1995. "Arbitrage pricing and the stochastic inflation tax in a multisector monetary economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 569-597, April.
    11. John Ammer, 1994. "Inflation, inflation risk, and stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 464, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Lumpkin, Stephen A. & O'Brien, James M., 1997. "Thrift stock returns and portfolio interest rate sensitivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 341-357, July.
    13. Kwon, Chung S. & Shin, Tai S., 1999. "Cointegration and causality between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-81.
    14. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.
    15. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño, 2013. "Inflation news and stock returns: market direction and flow-through ability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 775-798, April.
    16. Grant McQueen & V. Vance Roley, 1990. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 3520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance) ; Stock - Prices;

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