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Firm characteristics, unanticipated inflation, and stock returns

  • V. Vance Roley
  • Douglas K. Pearce

This paper re-examines the effects of nominal contracts on the relationship between unanticipated inflation and individual stock's rate of return. This study differs in three main ways from previous research. First, announced inflation data are used to examine the effects of unanticipated inflation. Second, a different specification is used to obtain more efficient estimates. Third, additional nominal contracts are considered. The empirical results indicate that time-varying firm characteristics related to inflation predominately determine the effect of unanticipated inflation on a stock's rate of return. A firm's debt-equity ratio appears to be particularly important in determining the response.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 88-01.

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Date of creation: 1988
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:88-01
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  1. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-83, May.
  2. Pesando, James E, 1987. "Discontinuities in Pension Benefit Formulas and the Spot Model of the Labor Market: Implications for Financial Economists," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(2), pages 215-38, April.
  3. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  4. Feldstein, Martin & Seligman, Stephanie, 1981. "Pension Funding, Share Prices, and National Savings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 801-24, September.
  5. Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March.
  6. Pearce, Douglas K, 1987. "Short-term Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Monthly Survey: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 388-95, August.
  7. Zvi Bodie & Alan J. Marcus & Robert C. Merton, 1985. "Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution Pension Plans: What are the Real Tradeoffs?," NBER Working Papers 1719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bernard, Victor L., 1986. "Unanticipated inflation and the value of the firm," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 285-321, March.
  9. Hong, Hai, 1977. "Inflation and the Market Value of the Firm: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1031-48, September.
  10. Nelson, Charles R, 1979. "Recursive Structure in U.S. Income, Prices, and Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1307-27, December.
  11. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Daniel E. Smith, 1983. "Introduction to "Pensions in the American Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the American Economy, pages 1-19 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Daniel E. Smith, 1983. "Pensions in the American Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kotl83-1, March.
  13. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  14. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
  15. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
  16. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-70, May.
  17. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jorgenson, Dale W., 1979. "Statistical inference for a system of simultaneous, non-linear, implicit equations in the context of instrumental variable estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 275-302.
  18. French, Kenneth R & Ruback, Richard S & Schwert, G William, 1983. "Effects of Nominal Contracting on Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 70-96, February.
  19. Jeremy I. Bulow, 1982. "What are Corporate Pension Liabilities?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(3), pages 435-452.
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