IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecp/v62y2023i3p377-395.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting long‐run risk factors of stock returns: Evidence from Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Rajabrata Banerjee
  • Tony Cavoli
  • Ron McIver
  • Shannon Meng
  • John K. Wilson

Abstract

This study utilises the stock market data provided by the Australian Equity Database to analyse the long‐run relationship between Australian stock returns and key macroeconomic variables over the period 1926–2017. To measure the diverse risk factors in the stock market, we examine the possible determinants in four main categories: real, financial, domestic and international. Our results reveal that historical stock returns are strongly connected to financial and international factors as compared to real and domestic factors. Both the 1973–1974 OPEC Oil Price Crisis and 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis had dampening effects on stock returns. There is a positive association between the US and Australian stock markets in the long‐run. These findings on stock market dynamics and their linkages with domestic and international macroeconomic policy changes in the long‐run have important implications for traders and practitioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajabrata Banerjee & Tony Cavoli & Ron McIver & Shannon Meng & John K. Wilson, 2023. "Predicting long‐run risk factors of stock returns: Evidence from Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 377-395, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:62:y:2023:i:3:p:377-395
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12298
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8454.12298?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. Chaudhuri & S. Smiles, 2004. "Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 121-129.
    2. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-483, May.
    3. Vincent Fromentin & Turki Alshammari, 2022. "Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?," Post-Print hal-03721792, HAL.
    4. Gareth Campbell & William Quinn & John D. Turner & Qing Ye, 2018. "What moved share prices in the nineteenth†century London stock market?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(1), pages 157-189, February.
    5. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1987. "Firm Characteristics, Unanticipated Inflation, and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 2366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    7. Robert B. Durand & Manapon Limkriangkrai & Gary Smith, 2006. "In America's thrall: the effects of the US market and US security characteristics on Australian stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(4), pages 577-604, December.
    8. P. Kearns & A.R. Pagan, 1993. "Australian Stock Market Volatility: 1875–1987," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(2), pages 163-178, June.
    9. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1323-1333, September.
    10. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    11. Bhuiyan, Erfan M. & Chowdhury, Murshed, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: Asymmetric dynamics in the US and Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 62-74.
    12. Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
    13. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1988. " Firm Characteristics, Unanticipated Inflation, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 965-981, September.
    14. David Dickinson, 2000. "Stock market integration and macroeconomic fundamentals: an empirical analysis, 1980-95," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 261-276.
    15. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    16. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    17. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    18. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    19. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    20. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
    21. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    22. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
    23. Canova, Fabio & De Nicolo', Gianni, 1995. "Stock returns and real activity: A structural approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 981-1015, May.
    24. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Andreas Humpe & David G. McMillan & Mariam Camarero, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and long-term stock market performance. A panel ARDL cointegration approach for G7 countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1816257-181, January.
    26. Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
    27. Colm Kearney & Kevin Daly, 1998. "The causes of stock market volatility in Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 597-605.
    28. Kearns, P & Pagan, A R, 1993. "Australian Stock Market Volatility: 1875-1987," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(205), pages 163-178, June.
    29. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    30. Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Predicting asset returns in the BRICS: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-143.
    31. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    32. Fromentin, Vincent, 2022. "Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    33. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2009. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 111-119.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Dene Hurley & Román Ferrer, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3569-3587, July.
    2. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    3. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    5. Fromentin, Vincent, 2022. "Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    6. Grant McQueen & V. Vance Roley, 1990. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 3520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño, 2013. "Inflation news and stock returns: market direction and flow-through ability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 775-798, April.
    8. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.
    9. Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2013. "Forecasting the size premium over different time horizons," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1061-1072.
    10. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2009. "Do foreign purchases of U.S. stocks help the U.S. stock market?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 969-986, December.
    11. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Michael Weber, 2018. "Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations," NBER Working Papers 25317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. GIRI A. K. & JOSHI Pooja, 2017. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, April.
    13. Isma Zaighum, 2014. "Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Non-financial firms Stock Returns: Evidence from Sectorial Study of KSE-100 Index," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(1), pages 35-48, March.
    14. Rui F. Teixeira & Mara Madaleno & Elisabete S. Vieira, 2017. "Oil price effects over individual Portuguese stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 891-926, November.
    15. Ram Chandra Bhattarai & Nayan Krishna Joshi, 2009. "Dynamic Relationship among the Stock Market and the Macroeconomic Factors," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(2), pages 451-469, July.
    16. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    17. Christos Agiakloglou & Michalis Gkouvakis & Aggelos Kanas, 2016. "Causality in EU macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 264-277, March.
    18. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2007. "A two-Factor Asset Pricing Model and the Fat Tail Distribution of Firm Sizes," Papers physics/0702027, arXiv.org.
    19. I. E. Okorie & A. C. Akpanta & J. Ohakwe & D. C. Chikezie & C. U. Onyemachi & M. C. Ugwu, 2021. "Modeling the Relationships Across Nigeria Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Returns and Further Analysis," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 295-329, June.
    20. Andreas Humpe & David McMillan, 2020. "The Covid-19 stock market puzzle and money supply in the US," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3104-3110.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:62:y:2023:i:3:p:377-395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0004-900X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.