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Firm Characteristics, Unanticipated Inflation, and Stock Returns

  • Douglas K. Pearce
  • V. Vance Roley

This paper re-examines the effects of nominal contracts on the relationship between unanticipated inflation and individual stock's rate of return. This study differs in three main ways from previous research. First, announced inflation data are used to examine the effects of unanticipated inflation. Second, a different specification is used to obtain more efficient estimates. Third, additional nominal contracts are considered. The empirical results indicate that time-varying firm characteristics related to inflation predominately determine the effect of unanticipated inflation on a stock's rate of return. A firm's debt-equity ratio appears to be particularly important in determining the response.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2366.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2366.

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Date of creation: Aug 1987
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as The Journal of Finance, Vol. XLIII, No. 4, (September 1988).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2366
Note: ME
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  1. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
  2. Zvi Bodie & Alan J. Marcus & Robert C. Merton, 1988. "Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution Pension Plans: What are the Real Trade-offs?," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 139-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hong, Hai, 1977. "Inflation and the Market Value of the Firm: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1031-48, September.
  4. Bernard, Victor L., 1986. "Unanticipated inflation and the value of the firm," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 285-321, March.
  5. James E. Pesando, 1986. "Discontinuities in Pension Benefit Formulas and the Spot Model of the Labor Market: Implications for Financial Economists," NBER Working Papers 1795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jorgenson, Dale W., 1979. "Statistical inference for a system of simultaneous, non-linear, implicit equations in the context of instrumental variable estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 275-302.
  7. Jeremy I. Bulow, 1982. "What are Corporate Pension Liabilities?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(3), pages 435-452.
  8. French, Kenneth R & Ruback, Richard S & Schwert, G William, 1983. "Effects of Nominal Contracting on Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 70-96, February.
  9. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-70, May.
  10. Pearce, Douglas K, 1987. "Short-term Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Monthly Survey: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 388-95, August.
  11. Nelson, Charles R, 1979. "Recursive Structure in U.S. Income, Prices, and Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1307-27, December.
  12. Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March.
  13. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  14. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Daniel E. Smith, 1983. "Introduction to "Pensions in the American Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the American Economy, pages 1-19 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  16. Feldstein, Martin & Seligman, Stephanie, 1981. "Pension Funding, Share Prices, and National Savings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 801-24, September.
  17. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
  18. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-83, May.
  19. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Daniel E. Smith, 1983. "Pensions in the American Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kotl83-1, March.
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