IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/blg/journl/v12y2017i1p61-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • GIRI A. K.

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Birla Institute of Technology and Science (BITS), India)

  • JOSHI Pooja

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Birla Institute of Technology and Science (BITS), India)

Abstract

The purpose of the present study is to examine the long run and the short run relationship between stock price and a set of macroeconomic variables for Indian economy using annual data from 1979 to 2014. The long run relationship is examined by implementing the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration. VECM method is used to test the short and long run causality and variance decomposition is used to predict long run exogenous shocks of the variables. The results confirm a long run relationship among the variables. Evidence suggests that Economic growth, inflation and exchange rate influence stock prices positively. However, crude oil price influences the stock price negatively. This implies that the increase in oil price induces inflationary expectation in the mind of investors and hence stock prices are adversely affected. The VECM result indicates that short run and long run unidirectional causality running from economic growth and FDI to stock prices in India. The result of the variance decomposition shows that stock market development in India is mostly explained by its own shocks. The Government can take steps to control the crude oil price in India and Investors’ confidence has to be gained by boosting the economic growth of the economy through appropriate policy tools.

Suggested Citation

  • GIRI A. K. & JOSHI Pooja, 2017. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:61-78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eccsf.ulbsibiu.ro/RePEc/blg/journl/12105giri&joshi.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    3. Suk-Joong Kim & Michael D. McKenzie & Robert W. Faff, 2018. "Macroeconomic News Announcements and the Role of Expectations: Evidence for US Bond, Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 5, pages 151-174, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Thai-Ha LE & Youngho CHANG, 2011. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Stock Markets in Developed and Emerging Economies," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1103, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    5. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Ali Raza & Zeshan Ahmed & Mohammad Ahmed & Tanvir Ahmed, 2012. "The Role of FDI on Stock Market Development: The Case of Pakistan," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(1), pages 26-33.
    7. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    8. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    9. Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Matar, Ali, 2013. "Co-integration and causality analysis between stock market prices and their determinates in Jordan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 508-514.
    10. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    11. Syed Raza & Syed Jawaid, 2014. "Foreign capital inflows, economic growth and stock market capitalization in Asian countries: an ARDL bound testing approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 375-385, January.
    12. Bhargava, Alok, 2014. "Firms’ fundamentals, macroeconomic variables and quarterly stock prices in the US," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 241-250.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
    14. Levine, Ross, 1991. "Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1445-1465, September.
    15. Javed Iqbal, 2012. "Stock Market in Pakistan," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 11(1), pages 61-91, April.
    16. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Adolfo Barajas & Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena & Ran Bi & Miss Yuan Gao & Ms. Annette J Kyobe & Lam Nguyen & Christian Saborowski & Katsiaryna Sv, 2015. "Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/008, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    18. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    19. Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 1992. "Stock returns and volatility: An empirical study of the UK stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-59, February.
    20. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1987. "Firm Characteristics, Unanticipated Inflation, and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 2366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Adam, Anokye M. & Tweneboah, George, 2008. "Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Movement: Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 11256, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. repec:imf:imfsdn:15/8 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Asli Demeirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine (ed.), 0. "Finance and Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17119, December.
    24. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 323-339, May.
    25. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    26. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
    27. Charles Amo Yartey, 2008. "The Determinants of Stock Market Development in Emerging Economies: Is South Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2008/032, International Monetary Fund.
    28. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    29. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January.
    30. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    31. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:965-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    33. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    34. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    35. Karam Pal & Ruhee Mittal, 2011. "Impact of macroeconomic indicators on Indian capital markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 84-97, March.
    36. Ratna Sahay & Martin Cihak & Papa M N'Diaye & Adolfo Barajas & Diana B Ayala Pena & Ran Bi & Yuan Gao & Annette J Kyobe & Lam Nguyen & Christian Saborowski & Katsiaryna Svirydzenka & Seyed Reza Yousef, 2015. "Rethinking Financial Deepening; Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/08, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    38. Abugri, Benjamin A., 2008. "Empirical relationship between macroeconomic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from Latin American markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 396-410.
    39. Peter Mazuruse, 2014. "Canonical correlation analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 179-196, May.
    40. Mohammed Nishat & Rozina Shaheen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 619-637.
    41. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    42. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Policy on Real GDP in Brazil: A VAR Model," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 6(1), February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel, Ongo Nkoa Bruno & Thierry, Mamadou Asngar & Christian, Atangana Zambo Charles & Ludé, Djam'Angai, 2024. "What drives financial market growth in Africa?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Velip Suraj Pavto & Guntur Anjana Raju, 2020. "Relationship between Asian Emerging Stock Markets and Economic Fundamentals: A Cointegration and Block Exogeneity Wald Approach," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 280-292.
    3. Animesh Bhattacharjee & Joy Das, 2022. "Assessing the long-run and short-run effect of monetary variables on stock market in the presence of structural breaks: evidence from liberalised India," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 14(2), pages 121-131, December.
    4. Animesh Bhattacharjee & Joy Das, 2021. "Investigating the Long-run and the Short-run Relationship Between Domestic Macroeconomic Forces and Indian Equity Market: Evidence Based on ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Paradigm, , vol. 25(1), pages 61-76, June.
    5. Shada Almuwallad, 0000. "Exploring the Dynamics: Granger Causality Between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Prices Before and After the 2008 Financial Crisis: Evidence From The FTSE All-Share Index," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 14416316, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. Arodh Lal Karn & Bhavana Raj Kondamudi & Ravi Kumar Gupta & Denis A. Pustokhin & Irina V. Pustokhina & Meshal Alharbi & Subramaniyaswamy Vairavasundaram & Vijayakumar Varadarajan & Sudhakar Sengan, 2022. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Energy Price Shocks for Sustainable Energy on the Macro-Economy of South Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Sheraliev Iskandar & Ślepaczuk Robert, 2023. "Cross-Country Differences in Return and Volatility Metrics of World Equity Indices," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 10(57), pages 90-115, January.
    8. Simran, & Sharma, Anil Kumar, 2024. "Asymmetric nexus between economic policy uncertainty and the Indian stock market: Evidence using NARDL approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 91-101.
    9. Jabłoński Bartłomiej & Kika Dorota, 2022. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Share Prices of Dividend Companies – A Comparative Analysis of Polish and US Issuers for the Period 2016–2020," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 22(2), pages 78-96, December.
    10. Saman Hatamerad & Hossain Asgharpur & Bahram Adrangi & Jafar Haghighat, 2024. "Stock price index analysis of four OPEC members: a Bayesian approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, December.
    11. Kishor K. Guru-Gharana & Matiur Rahman & Anisul M. Islam, 2021. "Japan s Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Toda-Yamamoto and Dolado-Lutkepohl Tests for Multivariate Granger Causality," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 107-122.
    12. Ibrahim Bello Abdullahi, 2020. "Effect of Unstable Macroeconomic Indicators on Banking Sector Stock Price Behaviour in Nigerian Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 1-5.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pooja Joshi & A K Giri, 2015. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and Indian Stock Price: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(10), pages 1119-1133, October.
    2. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar & Hall, John H. & Norman, Neville R., 2017. "Finance and growth: Evidence from the ARF countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-148.
    3. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Dene Hurley & Román Ferrer, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3569-3587, July.
    4. Md. Abu HASAN, 2017. "Efficiency and Volatility of the Stock Market in Bangladesh: A Macroeconometric Analysis," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 239-249, June.
    5. Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Al-Smadi, Raed Walid, 2015. "Determinants of Jordanian foreign direct investment inflows: Bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 27-35.
    6. Raza, Syed Ali & Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Afshan, Sahar, 2013. "Is Stock Market Sensitive to Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth? Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 48399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sumit Kumar Maji & Arindam Laha & Debasish Sur, 2020. "Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(3), pages 239-269, August.
    8. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    9. A., Rjumohan, 2019. "Stock Markets: An Overview and A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 101855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mohammad Joarder & Monir Ahmed & Tahsina Haque & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2014. "An empirical testing of informational efficiency in Bangladesh capital market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 63-87, February.
    11. Boikos, Spyridon & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Voucharas, Georgios, 2022. "Financial development, reforms and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Endang Mahpudin, 2020. "The Effect of Macroeconomics on Stock Price Index in the Republic of China," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 228-236.
    13. Pooja Joshi & A. K. Giri, 2015. "Cointegration and Causality between Macroeconomic variables and Stock Prices: Empirical Analysis from Indian Economy," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 327-345, December.
    14. R. Gopinathan & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2019. "Stock market and macroeconomic variables: new evidence from India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Duc Hong Vo & Son Van Huynh & Anh The Vo & Dao Thi-Thieu Ha, 2019. "The Importance of the Financial Derivatives Markets to Economic Development in the World’s Four Major Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, February.
    16. Rafaqat Ali & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2018. "Socioeconomic Stability and Variability in Stock Market Prices: A Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(4), pages 428-440, December.
    17. Janice Tieguhong Puatwoe & Serge Mandiefe Piabuo, 2017. "Financial sector development and economic growth: evidence from Cameroon," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, December.
    18. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2020. "Does Financial Development Moderate the Effects on Growth Volatility? The Experience of Malaysia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(4), pages 361-381, November.
    19. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.
    20. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "Insurance development and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from 34 OECD countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:61-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mihaela Herciu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feulbro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.