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Impacts of Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Policy on Real GDP in Brazil: A VAR Model


  • Yu Hsing

    (Southeastern Louisiana University)


This article employs the VAR model to estimate the impacts of government debt, monetary policy, exchange rates, and other selected macroeconomic variables on real GDP in Brazil. Using the money market rate as a policy tool, the impulse response function indicates that in the long run, a shock to the real money market rate, external debt, or domestic debt has a negative impact on output and that a shock to budget deficit, currency depreciation, or stock market performance has a positive effect on output. Variance decomposition of output shows that the lagged output is the most influential variable and can explain up to 69.98% of the variation in real output in Brazil. External debt is the second most important variable and can explain up to 33.34% of output fluctuations. Up to 22.24% of output variance is attributable to the real interest rate. When real monetary base is considered as a monetary tool, the response of output to government deficit is negative, and the stock market can explain more output variance. Hence, the selection of different monetary policy instruments may yield different empirical results for some of the impulse-response relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Policy on Real GDP in Brazil: A VAR Model," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 6(1), February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bej:issued:v:6:y:2004:i:1:hsing

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    Cited by:

    1. Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Uddi, Gazi Salah, 2019. "Relationship between Interest Rate and Stock Price: Empirical Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," SocArXiv 5fket, Center for Open Science.
    2. BENDOB, Ali & Benahmed-Daho, Rachida, 2017. "Pourrions-nous utiliser l'Euribor comme taux de rendement sans risque dans la région Arabe ? [Could we use the Euribor as risk-free rate return in Arabic region?]," MPRA Paper 81405, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2017.
    3. GIRI A. K. & JOSHI Pooja, 2017. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, April.
    4. Pooja Joshi & Arun Kumar Giri, 2015. "Fiscal Deficits and Stock Prices in India: Empirical Evidence," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Pallegedara, Asankha, 2012. "Dynamic relationships between stock market performance and short term interest rate Empirical evidence from Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 40773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Khrawish, Husni Ali & Siam, Walid Zakaria & Jaradat, Mohammad, 2010. "The relationships between stock market capitalization rate and interest rate: Evidence from Jordan," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 2(2), pages 1-7, July.
    7. Husni Ali Khrawish & Walid Zakaria Siam & Mohammad Jaradat, 2010. "The relationships between stock market capitalization rate and interest rate: Evidence from Jordan," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 2(2), pages 60-66, July.
    8. Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2019. "The Impacts of Interest Rate on Stock Market: Empirical Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange," OSF Preprints r3jpx, Center for Open Science.
    9. Rashid, Abdul, 2008. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Performance: Testing for Dynamic Linkages with a Known Structural Break," MPRA Paper 26937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Artatrana Ratha & Eungmin Kang & Mary Edwards, 2008. "Does an Undervalued Currency Promote Growth? Evidence from China," Working Papers 2008-2 Classification- F3, Saint Cloud State University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    monetary policy; exchange rates; VAR models;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt


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