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Dynamic relationships between stock market performance and short term interest rate Empirical evidence from Sri Lanka

  • Pallegedara, Asankha

This study examines the dynamic relationships between stock market performance and the interest rates in Sri Lanka during June 2004 to April 2011. We use all share price index in the Colombo stock exchange as a measure of stock market performance indicator and Sri Lanka interbank offer rate as a measure of interest rate. We employ some conventional time series econometric techniques namely Unit root test, cointegration test, vector auto correction model (VECM), Granger-Causality test and Impulse response functions (IRF) to trace out the relationships between stock market index and interest rate. The findings of interest include stock market performance is negatively associated with interest rate in the long run while no causal relationship is found in the short run.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40773/1/MPRA_paper_40773.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 40773.

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Date of creation: 18 Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40773
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  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "Returns And Interest Rate: A Nonlinear Relationship In The Bogota Stock Market," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003468, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  3. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  4. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Policy on Real GDP in Brazil: A VAR Model," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 6(1), February.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  6. L. E. Arango & A. Gonzalez & C. E. Posada, 2002. "Returns and the interest rate: a non-linear relationship in the Bogotastock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 835-842.
  7. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  8. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-37, Summer.
  9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
  10. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  11. Maysami, Ramin Cooper & Koh, Tiong Sim, 2000. "A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 79-96, February.
  12. John Y. Campbell, 1985. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  14. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
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